Bitcoin Weekly Chart Level: Regarding the candlestick chart, last week’s candlestick price bottomed out and rebounded after reaching around 1750, forming a hammer with an upper shadow. 1750 is a recent key support level. The first resistance above is near the horizontal neckline + ice line: around 2120, providing the first short-term resistance.

In terms of candlestick momentum, the continuous three bearish candles from the high near 3400 down to 1750 indicate that the bearish momentum is in the “main downtrend” phase. Generally, after a main downtrend, wide-range oscillation adjustments are needed. Even a violent rebound requires a bottoming structure. Referencing August 2024, after three consecutive bearish candles, the price formed a long-term oscillation structure at the bottom, followed by a subsequent rebound.

Therefore, the weekly chart shows that the downtrend has just ended, with support at the bottom. The price will oscillate and shake between support and resistance. The upper horizontal resistance can be used for high sell and low buy oscillation strategies. Currently, the market is on the left side of the oscillation, and the overall oscillation structure still needs to wait for further development.

Three reasons for the current bottom to oscillate and shake out:

(1) First, options positioning still leans towards bearishness. The largest put options at the end of February are concentrated between 50,000 and 60,000 USD. This is a forward-looking signal embedded in the market’s implied probabilities, not a lagging sentiment.

(2) Second, derivatives signals remain fragile. Extreme skewness, recent frequent negative funding rates, and inverted volatility structures are more consistent with a “rebound (Reliefrally)” characteristic under fear systems, rather than a trend reversal.

(3) Third, ETF flow data shows continuous outflows. As of February 5, the monthly net outflow of Bitcoin ETFs has reached 690 million USD. Although inflows have recently picked up, the current pattern indicates that institutional allocators have not shifted from “risk aversion (De-risking)” to “re-engagement (Re-engagement).”

Daily Chart Level: The price rebounded to the Fibonacci 0.236 level + ice line resistance, forming ten consecutive doji candles. This is a warning signal, indicating a possible direct breakdown for a second bottom, or a short-term breakout to around 2380 near the Fibonacci 0.382 resistance. The current bottom at 1750 has been confirmed. The challenge now is waiting for the formation of specific high points. Traders can alternatively attempt aggressive and conservative short positions at 2120, 2380, and other levels. If 2120 drops directly for a second test, we are at the highest point for high sell and low buy. If the market breaks through further, stop-loss for aggressive shorts can be placed at 2380 for conservative short positions.

Similarly, after the price hits the bottom support at 1750 again, if signs of breakdown or downward pinning appear, long positions can still be taken. The overall strategy is to perform high sell and low buy at the left side of the oscillation structure, confirming the high point for short positions at the top, and entering long positions for a second bottom at the low.

There is a death cross expectation on the Vegas indicator, accompanied by the formation of a bottom oscillation structure. As the oscillation time lengthens, Vegas will form a death cross. Therefore, it can be confirmed that the current trend is a bottom confirmation rebound, but not a trend reversal.