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【$POL Signal】No Position | Weak rebound in a downtrend, main force showing no signs of accumulation

$POL is undergoing weak sideways consolidation in a long-term downtrend, with the price suppressed below the EMA20 (0.0926). This is a typical weak rebound structure within a declining trend.

🎯Direction: No Position (NoPosition)

Market analysis: The 4H chart shows the price oscillating narrowly between 0.088 and 0.092, but each rebound high is decreasing (0.09281 -> 0.0916 -> 0.09126). This is a typical feature of a downward channel. Deep imbalance data shows buy orders are stacking (Bid/Ask Ratio: 1.54), but the price cannot rise, implying these buy orders may be “false support,” used to attract longs or provide liquidity for distribution.

Logical core: Key data does not support a long position. 1) Funding rate is -0.0095%, negative, but open interest (OI) trend is “stable” rather than rising, which does not meet the conditions for a short squeeze, indicating shorts are not being squeezed. 2) RSI is 34.23, in a weak zone but not oversold, leaving room for further decline. 3) Price (0.0893) is far below EMA20 (0.0926) and EMA50 (0.0975), all moving averages are in a bearish alignment. Market logic suggests “price decline,” and combined with stable OI, it’s more likely a slow decline or distribution by the main force rather than a healthy shakeout.

Risk control perspective: Currently, there is no clear entry logic. Long positions lack trend support and capital inflow signals; short positions face rebound risk under negative funding rates, and there is no “high rate + decreasing OI + bearish divergence” triple resonance. The best strategy is to stay on the sidelines, waiting for the price to clearly break below 0.087 (recent low) to confirm the continuation of the downtrend, or for a strong volume breakout and stabilization above EMA20 (0.0930) to reverse the trend.

Trade here 👇 $POL

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