$ETH Accelerating downward after breaking below the key EMA20 support, currently in a weak rebound phase within the downtrend channel. The 4H candles are consecutively bearish, with weak buying pressure, and the deep imbalance indicates heavy selling pressure.

🎯Position: No Position (NoPosition)

Market analysis: Price has broken below EMA20 (2025.9) and moved away, confirming a short-term trend weakening. The 4H RSI (38.05) has not entered oversold territory, but the rebound is weak. The key point is that open interest (OI) remains stable rather than decreasing, and the funding rate (-0.014%) is negative, ruling out the possibility of large-scale dumping or short squeezing by the main players. It appears to be a passive liquidation of long positions leading to a downward drift.

Hardcore logic: Deep imbalance reaches 89.38%, with ask orders significantly thicker than bid orders, yet the price cannot rise. This is a typical "false support," where large buy orders may just be passive resting orders rather than active buying. The price consolidates in the 1930-1960 range with decreasing volume, indicating a consolidation within a downtrend, with no clear bottom absorption or volume reversal candlestick.

Trading plan: Currently, conditions are not favorable for high-probability long positions (no retest of support or buy absorption signals). Shorting conditions are also not met (funding rate not extremely positive, no decreasing OI + top divergence). The best strategy is to stay on the sidelines, waiting for the price to show clear signs of stabilization at key support levels (such as the 1900-1920 previous lows), like long lower shadows, increased bid depth, or rising OI, before considering a position on the left side.