From Birth to Now: An Explanation of Ethereum's Full Cycle Structure and Position

Many people are currently discussing a short-term issue:
Will ETH rebound? Is it really over?
But if we don't extend the timeline to the entire lifecycle, these questions are actually meaningless.
This analysis focuses on one thing:
Since its inception in 2015, placing Ethereum within a complete cycle structure to see which stage it is currently in.
1. Ethereum's Full Lifecycle Structure
1️⃣ 2015–2016: Primitive Accumulation Phase
During this stage: no institutions, no ETFs, no macro linkage, extremely low liquidity
Price remains sideways for a long time.
This is a "seed phase" structure: technical experimental assets, niche consensus, low volatility accumulation.
2️⃣ 2017–2018: The First Bubble
Driving force: ICO boom
Price rapidly rises to over 1000, then crashes to around 80.
The structural language is very clear: Diffusion → Overheating → Structural Collapse
This cycle teaches the market a core fact:
ETH is inherently a high-beta asset with bubble—clearing genes.
3️⃣ 2019–2020: Bottom Reconstruction
This phase: sideways trading, shrinking volume, emotional lows
Belongs to: Decay complete → Horizontal repair → Re-accumulation
This is the true structural rebuilding period.
4️⃣ 2020–2022: The Second Super Cycle
Driving forces: Global liquidity easing, DeFi, NFTs
Price rises from 80 to 4800.
Followed by rate hikes and deleveraging, price drops to around 800–1000.
This is the first real "institution-level bull and bear" cycle.
5️⃣ 2023–2025: The Third Cycle (Institutionalization + Macro)
This cycle differs from history: spot ETFs available, deep institutional participation, highly linked with US stocks, strongly tied to macro liquidity
ETH is no longer just a pure crypto asset, but part of the global risk asset system.
Price again peaks near 4800 before pulling back.
2. Current Position in the Historical Timeline
Current price is about 1960.
The question isn't "Will it rise,"
but: Is this a bull market relay correction? Or the decay phase of the third cycle?
From the monthly chart:
4800 forms a new high
Currently falling back below 2000
No strong reversal with volume
Structural language: a decline after a double peak, entering a mid-cycle decay phase
This is not an ordinary correction.
From the weekly chart: high points can't be sustained, lows are gradually moving lower, and the decline slope is obvious
Indicating: the downward structure has not yet been repaired
3. Stage Judgment
According to the fixed four-stage model: Initiation → Diffusion → Overheating → Decay
Currently: in the mid-decay phase of the third cycle
Why not the bottom?
Because: no extreme panic volume, no emotional lows, no long sideways accumulation bottoming out
4. The Significance of 2000
2000 is not just a normal number. It represents: the key pivot of 2021–2022, multiple rounds of battle cost zone, long-term balance point between bulls and bears
If the monthly closes below 2000 consecutively: the structure will enter a deeper re-pricing
Possible tests: 1600, 1200, 1000–1400 historical dense zones
5. When is the Structure Considered Stronger?
Must meet three conditions:
First layer: Qualification to stop falling—weekly chart shows stabilization, higher lows appear
Second layer: Structural repair—recovering back above 2400–2450, holding support on retests
Third layer: Trend recovery
Monthly chart back above 2800–2900 and holding
Without the third layer, no trend discussion.
6. Irreversible Changes
ETH has undergone two structural changes:
1️⃣ Highly linked with US stocks
2️⃣ Becoming a macro liquidity asset
This means future trends:
Will no longer be determined solely by crypto narratives
But by the global liquidity cycle
7. Current Calm Judgment
ETH is not dead, but it is also not in a main rally phase.
It resembles: the mid-decay of the third cycle
If 2000 cannot hold:
It may enter a deeper clearing.
If 2000 holds and consolidates sideways for months:
That would be a bottom-building signal.
8. Permitted and Forbidden
Permitted: Waiting for weekly confirmation of stabilization, waiting for 2400 to recover, light testing, no heavy positions
Forbidden: Heavy bottom-fishing below 2000, treating rebounds as trends, replacing structural analysis with narratives
Summary of the full cycle in one sentence: ETH is essentially a liquidity amplifier and a resonance body for risk assets.
Current stage:
Mid-decay of the third cycle
Has not yet entered final clearing
Nor has it entered a new initiation
No betting on rebounds, just waiting for the structure.