Survival Game Under Liquidity Crisis: Deep Analysis and Trading Strategies in the Crypto Market on February 13, 2026

Bitcoin is oscillating around the key support level of $68,000, with institutional ETF outflows continuing and macro liquidity tightening creating dual pressure. The market is undergoing a painful transition from "narrative-driven" to "cash flow-driven," requiring investors to seek structural opportunities in defense.

1. Market Overview: Structural Splits in the Blood-Red Correction

Bitcoin: The Trajectory of Falling from the Peak

As of February 13, 2026, Bitcoin's trading price is approximately $68,003, down 46% from the October 2025 all-time high of $126,080. Over the past 30 days, it has fallen by as much as -26.18%, with market capitalization evaporating over $600 billion from its peak. This decline reflects not only a technical correction but also a fundamental shift in market logic.

Key Data Reveals Market Fragility:

• Monthly Drop: -26.18%, the largest single-month decline since the FTX collapse in 2022

• Volatility: Exploded after hitting a 16-month low, indicating deteriorating market depth

• Support Levels: The $60,000-$65,000 range is the last line of defense; breaking below could trigger a chain reaction of miner bankruptcies

Institutional Capital Exodus: ETF Liquidity Crisis

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are experiencing the longest outflow cycle in history:

• Net outflow in February: $1.6 billion, third consecutive month of negative inflows

• Year-to-date: Nearly $8 billion in institutional funds have exited since the October 2025 peak

• Cost basis: Average ETF buyer cost around $90,000, currently at a full unrealized loss

This institutional retreat is not a short-term fluctuation but marks the end of the 2024-2025 "ETF bull market" narrative. Wintermute's analysis indicates that capital is shifting massively into AI-related stocks, with Nasdaq's performance excluding AI components highly correlating with the crypto market's weakness.

Altcoin Winter: Structural Extinction

The Altcoin Season Index stands at only 30/100, far below the 75 threshold for a bull market. CryptoRank research reveals four major structural barriers:

1. Capital Dilution: Traceable tokens increased from 5.8 million to 29.2 million, fragmenting funds infinitely

2. Tokenomics Traps: Low liquidity + high unlocks cause persistent selling pressure, with over $1 billion worth of tokens unlocking this week

3. Competition Diversion: Meme coins, perpetual contracts, and prediction markets siphon off speculative capital

4. Institutional Preference: ETF funds are concentrated only in BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP; mid-tier projects are abandoned

Bitcoin dominance remains at 59%, with the market having experienced 122 consecutive days without a "Shitcoin Season," and 1,456 days since the last altcoin year.

2. Macro Storm: Federal Reserve Policy and Liquidity Restructuring

The "New Normal" of Interest Rates

In 2026, the Federal Reserve maintains the benchmark rate between 3.00%-3.25%, a "long-term high interest rate" environment that has thoroughly changed risk pricing in crypto assets:

• Risk-Free Rate Anchor: 3% Treasury yields become the valuation benchmark for all risk assets

• DeFi Yield Pressure: Protocols must generate real, sustainable returns rather than inflationary token incentives

• USD Stablecoins Strength: Euro-American interest rate differentials drive arbitrage capital into USD stablecoins, consolidating USD's dominance in the crypto economy

The Far-Reaching Impact of the October 2025 Flash Crash

On October 10, 2025, the "October Flash Crash" (liquidating $19 billion in a single day) cleared out the last high-leverage speculative positions. This event marked:

• Leverage Liquidation: High-risk speculative funds forced to exit

• Institutional Domination: Market pricing power shifted from retail to professional capital

• Quality Screening: Only projects with genuine cash flows survive

3. Technical Breakdown: Key Price Levels and Sentiment Indicators

Bitcoin Technical Structure

Weekly Chart: Bullish engulfing pattern appears, suggesting a short-term rebound near $60,000. However, this signal needs volume confirmation, as ongoing institutional outflows weaken the credibility of a technical rebound.

Key Price Matrix:

• Resistance: $85,000 (200-day moving average and psychological level), $90,000 (ETF average cost line)

• Core Support: $60,000-$65,000 (miner shutdown price and August 2024 lows)

• Extreme Risk: $50,000 (Standard Chartered's capitulation target warning)

Rainbow Chart Positioning: Current price is in the "Accumulate" zone (below $73,700-$95,100), with the "Buy" zone extending down to $54,700, and the "Absolute Bottom" in the $40,000 range.

Sentiment and Capital Flow Indicators

• Fear & Greed Index: in "Extreme Fear" zone (23/100), comparable to the 2022 bear market bottom

• Realized Profit/Loss Ratio: continues to decline, indicating profit exhaustion and increasing losses

• Coinbase Premium: persistent negative premium, indicating lack of institutional buying

4. Sector Rotation and Structural Opportunities

Defensive Allocation: Bitcoin and Ethereum

During liquidity contraction cycles, the defensive attributes of the top two market cap assets are prominent:

• Bitcoin: While the "Digital Gold" narrative faces challenges, its core holding status among institutions remains intact

• Ethereum: Approaching $2,000 psychological level, MVRV indicator enters a historical opportunity zone, but faces potential $1.33 billion liquidation risk from large players like Trend Research

High-Risk Appetite: Meme Coins and Emerging Narratives

Despite overall market gloom, projects like Pepeto attract capital through staking yields, showing that speculative demand has never disappeared, only shifting from "fundamental narratives" to "cash flow mechanisms." Suitable for high-risk short-term traders.

Avoid List: Zombie Projects and Unlock Pressures

Based on the above analysis, the following categories should be strictly avoided:

• High FDV, low liquidity projects: Continuous unlocks cause irreversible selling pressure

• Narrative-shifting projects: Sleepless AI, Hooked Protocol, and other "zombie" projects lacking delivery capability

• Mid-tier public chains: Saga, Dymension, and other infrastructure projects with severe TVL and market cap mismatch

5. Trading Strategies: Three-Layer Defense System

Layer One: Position Management (Prioritize Survival)

Total position recommendation: Reduce to 30%-40% cash, maintaining sufficient "crisis ammunition."

Bitcoin Allocation:

• Aggressive: Gradually build positions in the $60,000-$65,000 range, with stop-loss below $58,000

• Conservative: Wait for ETF fund flows to turn positive + Coinbase premium to recover for right-side entry

• Very Conservative: Wait until $50,000-$55,000 extreme panic zone

Altcoin Allocation: Compress to no more than 20% of total, limited to top assets like ETH, SOL

Layer Two: Risk Management (Stop-loss and Hedging)

• Single trade stop-loss: Strictly set at -7% to -10%, avoiding "averaging down" traps

• Hedging tools: Use options for protection or stablecoin yield farming (current DeFi stablecoin yields around 3-5%, close to risk-free rate)

• Leverage Reset: Prohibit using more than 2x leverage in current volatility environment

Layer Three: Time Frame and Event-Driven

Short-term (1-4 weeks): Focus on three major reversal signals

1. Coinbase premium returning to positive

2. ETF fund flows turning positive (lasting over 3 days)

3. Basis rate (spot-futures spread) stabilization

Medium-term (1-3 months): Fed policy shift signals, Bitcoin halving supply digestion

Long-term (6-12 months): Focus on protocols with real cash flow income (RWA, payments, stablecoin infrastructure)

6. Conclusion: Rebuilding Cognition from the Ruins

The crypto market in February 2026 is undergoing a painful transformation from "narrative premium" to "cash flow discount." Outflows of $8 billion from ETFs, 11.6 million projects dying, and the persistent low of the Altcoin Season Index all herald the end of an era.

But this is not the end of the industry; it is a necessary stage of maturation. When the risk-free rate hits 3%, when speculative leverage is thoroughly cleansed, and only projects with real delivery survive—this market is returning to its fundamental value.

For investors, the survival rule in 2026 is: abandon illusions, respect cash flow, protect principal amid institutional capital withdrawals, and wait for the next cycle.

Risk Warning: Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. This analysis is based on public information and does not constitute investment advice. Please make decisions cautiously according to your risk tolerance and do not invest more than you can afford to lose. #Gate广场发帖领五万美金红包 $BTC