Global Coffee Market Price Today: Brazil Rains and Supply Concerns Reshape Outlook

The coffee market price today reflects a complex interplay of weather patterns and production forecasts. March arabica futures moved into positive territory with a modest +0.39% gain, while March robusta contracts fell -2.24% to touch their lowest levels in four weeks. This split performance underscores the divergent forces now shaping the coffee market price across different bean varieties.

Arabica Gains, Robusta Weakens: A Tale of Two Coffee Markets

Arabica coffee rebounded from technical selling pressure, recovering from last week’s 5.5-month lows. The mild short covering provided enough lift to push prices into the green, even as fundamental conditions remain challenged. Robusta tells a different story entirely, with prices sliding to their weakest point in a month amid persistent selling pressure. The coffee market price divergence reflects fundamental differences between these two segments—arabica plays beneficiary to production concerns, while robusta faces mounting supply headwinds from the world’s top producer.

Brazil’s Heavy Rains: Blessing for Yields, Curse for Prices

Brazil’s Minas Gerais region, responsible for the largest share of global arabica output, received 69.8 millimeters of rainfall during the week ending January 30—representing 117% of its historical average. While such moisture supports strong crop development and yields, it simultaneously weighs on the coffee market price through improved supply outlooks. Brazil’s crop agency Conab raised its 2025 total production estimate to 56.54 million bags on December 4, up 2.4% from the prior September forecast of 55.20 million bags. The consistent rainfall forecasts for Minas Gerais continue to pressure coffee market price sentiment, as traders price in the prospect of ample global supplies ahead.

Vietnam’s Production Surge and Inventory Recovery Pressure Robusta Prices

Vietnam’s dominance in robusta coffee production has reached new heights. The nation reported 2025 coffee exports surged +17.5% year-over-year to 1.58 million metric tons in early January, while domestic 2025/26 production is projected to climb +6% to 1.76 million metric tons—a four-year high. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association indicated production could reach 10% above prior-year levels if favorable weather persists. This avalanche of Vietnamese robusta supply represents a significant structural headwind for the coffee market price in that segment.

Inventory dynamics amplify these supply pressures. ICE-tracked robusta inventories, which had dipped to 1-year lows of 4,012 lots on December 10, recovered to 4,609 lots by late January. Similarly, arabica stockpiles fell to 1.75-year lows of 398,645 bags on November 20 before rebounding to 461,829 bags by mid-January. These inventory recoveries signal rebuilding supply buffers, which typically exerts downward force on the coffee market price.

Export Dynamics: A Mixed Message for Coffee Market Price Trends

Brazil’s December green coffee exports declined to 2.86 million bags, down -18.4% month-over-month, with arabica shipments falling -10% year-over-year to 2.6 million bags. This contraction in near-term export flows provides modest support. However, the International Coffee Organization’s report on November 7 showed global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October-September) fell just -0.3% year-over-year to 138.658 million bags—signaling overall supply remains robust despite temporary export slowdowns.

Global Production Outlook and the Future of Coffee Market Price

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service released its most recent assessment in mid-December, projecting world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase +2.0% to a record 178.848 million bags. This production expansion masks a structural shift: arabica output is expected to decline -4.7% to 95.515 million bags, while robusta jumps +10.9% to 83.333 million bags. Brazil’s production specifically is forecast to decline -3.1% to 63 million bags, while Vietnam’s coffee output is anticipated to rise 6.2% to 30.8 million bags—matching its highest level in four years.

The telling metric lies in global ending stocks. FAS forecasts 2025/26 ending stocks will fall -5.4% to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25. While this represents a drawdown, the level remains historically elevated, suggesting the coffee market price will continue navigating between supply concerns and demand fundamentals as we move deeper into the crop year.