#我在Gate广场过新年 BTC$66,800 Resistance Level Tug-of-War: A Deadly Counterattack or a Trap for Induced Buying?

⚠️ Deep Market Game: Five Key Signals
1️⃣ The Fear & Greed Index has bottomed out with a slight rebound, but remains in extreme fear territory: 11 points (slightly up after hitting a record low of 5 on February 6)
Historical comparison: Still in the "Extreme Fear" zone, far from the normal bottom range (20-30 points)
Google searches for "Bitcoin zero" have reached record highs, spreading retail panic sentiment

Analysis: Although the sentiment indicator has slightly improved, market confidence has not truly recovered. Historical experience shows that a genuine bottom often requires the Fear & Greed Index to stabilize above 20 along with increased trading volume to confirm.
2️⃣ ETF Outflows Persist, Institutions Continue to Withdraw
On February 18, a single-day outflow of $133.3 million, with BlackRock's iBIT leading with an outflow of $84.2 million, bringing the total net outflow in February to over $500 million, the second-largest monthly outflow on record. European investors remain relatively stable, but U.S. institutional funds have shifted clearly toward defense.
Analysis: Institutional funds are shifting from a "bottom-fishing mode" to a "stop-loss mode." Continuous ETF outflows reflect Wall Street's lack of confidence in BTC's short-term trend. Unless ETF data turns into sustained net inflows, the bottom cannot be confirmed.
3️⃣ Whale Game: Large Holders Increasing vs Retail Panic Selling
On-chain data reveals conflicting phenomena: whales continue to buy the dip—wallet addresses holding 1,000-100,000 BTC increased their holdings by 70,000 BTC in February (worth about $4.6 billion), the largest monthly increase since November last year.
Retail panic selling: Small wallet addresses continue to reduce holdings, and exchange net inflows increase, indicating a "whale sucking and shrimp spitting" pattern. However, whale trading volume plummeted 72%: large transfer activity has sharply declined over the past 14 days, showing whales are quietly accumulating but not aggressively attacking.
Key contradiction: The inflow ratio of big whales increased from 0.4 to 0.62. Large holders are quietly positioning, but high-leverage institutions like MicroStrategy face liquidation risks and may be forced to sell, causing a stampede.
Analysis: Smart money is gradually building positions at the bottom but not fully bullish, implying that while the current level has value, risks are not fully cleared. Retail panic selling provides whales with cheap chips, but this does not necessarily mean a short-term rebound.
4️⃣ Technical Outlook: Critical Support Levels Wavering
The 200-week moving average (around $70,000) has been broken, and multiple rebounds have failed to reclaim the $66,000-$68,000 zone, which has become the new battleground: a drop below $66,000 could lead to a test of $62,000-$60,000.
Deribit warns: Only a return to $85,000 can confirm the continuation of a bull market; otherwise, the long-term upward trend is broken. MACD, RSI, and other indicators: daily oversold conditions have slightly improved, but weekly charts remain in a downtrend, and the technical outlook remains bearish.
5️⃣ Macro Environment: Increasing Fed Disagreements and Rising Geopolitical Risks
Uncertainty in monetary policy increases
The January FOMC minutes show diverging views among officials: some even consider the possibility of rate hikes. Hawkish stance exceeded market expectations: only two rate cuts are expected in 2026 (25 basis points each in June and December), leaving limited room for easing. The US dollar index (DXY) stands at 97.66, consolidating above 97.5, with a strong dollar suppressing liquidity in risk assets.
Geopolitical clouds thickening
US-Iran tensions escalate: international oil prices surge to their highest since last summer, boosting safe-haven sentiment.
Uncertainty over Trump’s tariff policies: although threats to impose tariffs on some European countries have been withdrawn, the shadow of trade wars remains.
Safe-haven assets show divergence
While traditional safe-haven assets recover, cryptocurrencies remain weak, exposing market doubts about BTC’s safe-haven properties.
Analysis: The macro environment is extremely unfavorable for BTC—expectations of Fed rate cuts have been dashed, suppressing liquidity. Geopolitical risks should benefit safe-haven assets, but BTC has not benefited, reflecting the market’s view of it as a "risk asset" rather than a "hedging tool."