The current total cryptocurrency market capitalization is approximately $2.25-2.35 trillion, down nearly 40-50% from the 2025 peak, indicating an extreme correction/development phase dominated by macro policy uncertainty. Repeated tariffs under Trump + unmet expectations of Fed rate cuts + large-scale outflows from institutional ETFs have collectively heightened risk aversion, with the Fear & Greed index dropping to **Extreme Fear (5-12)**, a historic low. In the short term (1-4 weeks), markets remain under pressure (BTC 60k-65k, ETH 1700-1850 oscillating weakly), but on-chain accumulation and favorable policies are emerging. The long-term outlook (full year 2026) remains strongly optimistic—55k-65k (BTC)/1600-1850 (ETH) are likely the last entry points in this cycle, with subsequent liquidity recovery and Altseason expected.

1. Global Macro Environment Breakdown (Current Dominant Pressures)
• Trump Tariff Policies: After the Supreme Court rejected old tariffs, a new global 15% tariff plan (Section 122, etc.) was quickly introduced, coupled with geopolitical tensions pushing up oil prices and the dollar index. In the short term, this increases inflationary pressure and suppresses global risk appetite. Stock markets (S&P 500 ~6800-7000 range oscillation, Nasdaq tech stocks heavily sold off) and cryptocurrencies are highly correlated (30-day correlation coefficient 0.6-0.7).
• Federal Reserve Monetary Policy: Quantitative tightening (QT) ended in December 2025, but real yields remain high. The dot plot shows fewer rate cuts in 2026 than expected (federal funds rate maintained at 3.5-4.5%). Sticky inflation (core PCE 2.4-2.9%), mixed labor data → market prices in no quick easing, putting pressure on risk asset valuations.
• Liquidity and Risk Transmission: US stocks and crypto are adjusting in tandem (BTC behaving more like high-beta tech stocks rather than “digital gold”), while gold/silver are strengthening. Overall, the market is in a “restrictive digestion phase” rather than early expansion.

2. Crypto Market Funds and Institutional Behavior
• ETF Outflows: BTC/ETH spot ETFs have experienced continuous net outflows for 5 weeks, with total outflows since 2026 reaching $3.5-4.5 billion (weekly max $300-400 million). Deleveraging and profit-taking by institutions dominate. Although net inflows remain positive (over $50 billion historically), short-term supply shocks are forming.
• Institutional Positions: Hedge funds have reduced holdings (some positions halved), but long-term frameworks (such as bank custody and stablecoins) are still expanding. Major institutions like BlackRock still have small inflows, indicating structural divergence.
• BTC Dominance: About 55-57%, with the altcoin sector extremely shrunk (only 7.1% outside the Top 10), characteristic of late bear market.

3. Sentiment, Cycle Position, and Historical Comparison
• Sentiment Indicators: Extreme Fear has persisted for several days, similar to November 2022, late 2018, and March 2020—each extreme fear phase was followed by at least 3-6 months of accumulation and rebound.
• Cycle Stage: The bull market after the 2024 halving has peaked; currently in a “post-bull correction” + macro overlay. On-chain data shows massive accumulation in the 60-70k range, with supply-side resilience (long-term holders not fleeing en masse).
• Structural Favorability: The pro-crypto stance of the Trump administration (Genius stablecoin bill enacted, SEC/CFTC shifting support, market structure bills advancing), and the “Crypto Capital” policy benefits in the US are fermenting. Clearer stablecoin regulation will significantly broaden entry channels for traditional financial institutions.

4. My Overall Outlook and Action Recommendations
Short-term (1-4 weeks): Cautious oscillation, watch the 60k/1800 critical levels. A break below could accelerate testing of 55k/1600 (probability 30%), while holding could lead to a rebound to 65k-70k/1950-2050.
Medium-term (3-6 months): Mainly bottoming. If macro data (PCE, employment, tariff implementation) are positive, liquidity recovery could trigger the first rebound wave.
Long-term (full year 2026+): The main bull run is on the eve. As long as policies, adoption, and supply shocks remain intact, targets of BTC 100k-150k+, ETH 4000-6000+, and a total market cap of $5-8 trillion remain highly probable.

Practical Strategies:
• Bottom-fisher players: DCA in batches at 55k-65k (BTC)/1600-1850 (ETH), with larger positions at lower levels.
• Short-term rebounds: Maintain small positions at key supports, prioritize stop-loss if broken.
• Position control: Keep total crypto exposure within 15-20% of total funds; always prioritize stop-loss.

Today’s extreme panic is tomorrow’s opportunity. While macro black swans still exist, the fundamentals (policy + institutional infrastructure) are far stronger than price performance. 1600-1850/55k-65k are most likely the last entry window before 2026.