2028 Global Intelligence Crisis

1️⃣ This is not a tech bull market, but the eve of structural re-pricing
AI brings not just a simple productivity boost, but the erosion of the “human intelligence premium.”
The entire modern economic system—wages, consumption, mortgages, taxes—are built on the assumption of “scarcity of human intelligence.”
This premise is being broken.
2️⃣ A negative feedback loop has already formed (and has no natural brake)
AI gets stronger → layoffs → decreased consumption → squeezed corporate profits → ramp up AI → more layoffs
This is not an inventory cycle, nor an interest rate cycle, but a structural cycle of “people being replaced.”
Traditional macro tools cannot automatically fix this.
3️⃣ White-collar income is the core of the system
White-collars make up 50% of employment but contribute about 75% of disposable consumption.
When high-income groups face pay cuts or unemployment, even a small proportion causes a huge impact on non-essential spending.
The problem is not total employment, but the collapse of income structure.
4️⃣ Frictions disappear, and intermediary business models collapse
AI agents eliminate “laziness,” “habits,” and “information asymmetry.”
Automatic subscription price comparisons
Automatic insurance policy switching
Automatic lowest-price food delivery
Payments bypass 2–3% credit card fees
When machines make decisions for you, all friction-based moats become invalid. Profits are squeezed to the limit.
5️⃣ Private credit and insurance systems become financial amplifiers
A large amount of leveraged acquisitions are based on the assumption of “SaaS revenue perpetual growth.”
When AI replaces these software functions, ARR is no longer stable.
The problem is not just defaults, but:
These loans are held by life insurance and annuity funds.
“Perpetual capital” is actually the savings of ordinary households.
6️⃣ The biggest potential flashpoint: $13 trillion in high-quality mortgages
This is not a subprime problem.
It’s the failure of the assumption of high-quality loans.
Borrowers with a 780 FICO score were once good assets,
but if income structurally declines, the 30-year cash flow assumptions are shattered.
This is the true source of systemic risk.