Polymarket Becomes the "Intelligence Battlefield" Between the US and Iran: Related Market Trading Volume Exceeds $700 Million, Mysterious Accounts Make Precise Bets, Sparking Insider Trading Controversy

Currently, the Polymarket homepage is almost entirely occupied by topics related to the US and Iran. Latest data shows that the total trading volume of geopolitical markets directly related to the US-Iran conflict has surpassed $700 million.
Among them, the core topic "When will the US launch an attack on Iran" alone has a trading volume of $529 million, making it the highest in Polymarket history.
Other topics surrounding the Iran situation have also seen widespread activity, including:
• Markets related to whether Khamenei will step down/die: total trading volume over $150 million
• Prediction of US-Iran ceasefire timing: trading volume over $5 million
• Whether the Iranian regime will fall before 2027: trading volume over $7 million
• Whether Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz: trading volume around $5 million
• Predictions on the next Supreme Leader of Iran also continue to heat up
Accompanying the high trading volume is the controversy over insider trading caused by "precise betting."
Blockchain analysis firm Bubblemaps disclosed that, in the hours to 24 hours before the US military operation on February 28, at least 6 newly registered accounts concentrated on buying related contracts at low prices, all profiting afterward, with total profits of about $1.2 million, and one account earning nearly $560,000 net profit.
This incident has sparked widespread suspicion on social media, with some politicians calling for an investigation, suspecting the possibility of insider information being exploited for profit.