Mining Pool Experts Describe Bitcoin Mining Prospects for the Coming Years

By 2030, the control of most of the Bitcoin network's hash rate will be held by the five largest miners, and the main factor for survival will be access to cheap electricity, according to a report by Neopool mining pool analysts.
Referring to the industry’s history, experts recalled that in the early years of the network, the first cryptocurrency was mined by home computer owners. Only later did mining pools emerge, marking the beginning of market consolidation.

A decisive turning point occurred in 2013 with the advent of specialized ASIC devices designed exclusively for Bitcoin mining. This equipment significantly increased mining efficiency and made home mining nearly unprofitable. As a result, computational power began to concentrate in large data centers.

After the 2024 halving, when the block reward was reduced to 3.125 BTC, mining profitability noticeably declined. This forced operators to upgrade equipment, optimize energy consumption, and seek new revenue sources, the study’s authors write.

By early 2026, the global network hash rate exceeded 1000 EH/s, and mining difficulty approached record levels. Today, according to Neopool, mining profitability depends on:

- Bitcoin price;
- Network difficulty;
- Electricity costs;
- Efficiency of the used equipment.

Electricity expenses can account for up to 80% of all operational costs for mining companies. Operators paying more than $0.06 per kWh or using outdated equipment face serious pressure even at relatively high Bitcoin prices.

Following the upcoming 2028 halving, when the block reward will decrease to 1.5625 BTC, pressure on miners’ income will intensify. Neopool specialists suggest that only operators able to access electricity cheaper than $0.04 per kWh will remain profitable. They estimate that by 2030, the five largest companies will control over 60% of the global Bitcoin network hash rate, leading to the gradual exit of smaller operators from the market.

Mining analysts believe that in the coming years, mining will fully transform into a capital-intensive industry requiring large investments, efficient management, and access to cheap energy resources. In these conditions, the main factor for success will be not just the volume of computational power but the ability to efficiently manage infrastructure and reduce costs, the study’s authors summarized.

Earlier, experts from the investment firm Paradigm stated that uninformed people often perceive mining solely as electricity consumption, whereas in reality, it is a full-fledged participant in the energy market, helping to balance the grid.