XRP Fails to Break $1.60 Resistance Level, Technical Weakness Intensifies

Technical Weakness Intensifies, Unable to Break $1.60 Resistance

XRP rose to $1.60 on March 17 but failed to break through the resistance level, leading to a pullback. After a 1.6% decline that day, it further dropped 3.3% on the 18th, forming a weak Pin Bar pattern. The price has fallen to around $1.51.

Currently, XRP is down 62% from its 2025 high of $3.66 and 59% below its all-time high. Retail investor sentiment indicators on Stocktwits remain bullish, indicating mixed expectations among market participants.

Ripple’s $750 Million Stock Buyback Sparks Debate on XRP Price Impact

Ripple recently conducted a $750 million stock buyback. While seen as a move to enhance corporate value, critics argue that the company is focusing on using proceeds from XRP token sales to fuel its growth.

Ripple CTO David Schwartz responded, “This is part of a pre-disclosed strategy to give token holders opportunities to accumulate at lower prices.” On March 2, Ripple successfully integrated Ripple Prime into the DTCC’s NSCC clearing system, connecting XRPL directly with existing financial infrastructure.

Additionally, Ripple is advancing its efforts to obtain an Australian financial services license through BC Payments, seen as a signal of its global expansion strategy and potential IPO.

Spot ETF Approval Nears, $8 Billion Expected to Flow In

The approval of a spot XRP ETF remains the biggest variable. The SEC is reviewing the final application documents, with a deadline around March 27. Market experts estimate over a 90% chance of approval, which could bring in $80 billion from pension funds and IRA accounts if approved.

After the SEC settled the Ripple lawsuit on March 17, it issued new guidance on cryptocurrency securities, indicating a willingness to improve the regulatory environment. This is expected to positively impact the broader altcoin market, including XRP.

Clash of Words with Chainlink, Debate Heats Up in XRPL Ecosystem

Chainlink’s Zach Reins accused XRPL of being an “obsolete ghost chain,” noting that tokenized real-world assets and stablecoins account for less than 1% and 0.01% of the market share, respectively. In response, Ripple leadership and community members countered, “XRP’s market cap of $91 billion far exceeds Chainlink’s $7 billion.”

Regarding XRP’s price outlook for 2026, opinions vary. Elliott Wave analysis suggests a scenario where the price reaches $5, then pulls back to $0.78 before rising to $27. Some community members expect target prices between $10 and $1,000, though this is considered overly optimistic.

In the short term, whether the ETF is approved by March 27 and the progress of the CLARITY Act will be key factors influencing the price direction. Technically, breaking above $1.60 would signal a trend reversal; conversely, falling below $1.40 could lead to further correction.

If regulatory uncertainties are resolved and institutional funds start flowing in large amounts, XRP is likely to break out of consolidation and regain upward momentum. Conversely, delays in ETF approval or failure of the CLARITY Act could increase short-term volatility and downward pressure, requiring cautious investor approach.

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