2026-03-21 07:01:39

【BTC Short-term Rally Expected to 74000, Focus on Position Reduction and Trading】

The Fed meeting has concluded with an overall hawkish tone: maintaining interest rates unchanged, only one rate cut expected for the year, while raising inflation expectations and signaling that rate hikes are not ruled out. Overall, this exerts certain pressure on market liquidity.

On the chart, BTC has reacted ahead of time, accelerating downward after breaking below 73000, and is currently oscillating around 70700. In the short term, there is certain demand for a rally here.

If a rebound occurs, pay close attention to the 74000 area, which is the retracement confirmation level after the trendline break and a key zone for short-term position reduction and trading.

From a structural perspective, a daily chart bearish divergence has already formed, and the probability of the rally topping is increasing. Therefore, it's not recommended to chase gains blindly during the rebound process.

Operationally, maintain patience, execute trades when the rally reaches target levels, and if follow-up pullbacks occur, then watch for opportunities at lower levels. At the current stage, focus on controlling positions and defense.

#美联储3月议息会议 $BTC #SEC批准纳斯达克代币化股票试点 $ETH

ETH0,65%

BTC0,6%

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橙子研究院

2026-03-19 06:25:53

【Fed "Hawk Call" Rings Loud! BTC Breaks Below 73,000, Is the Real Risk Just Beginning?】

The dust settled late night with the Federal Reserve's March 18, 2026 FOMC meeting conclusions: maintaining interest rates unchanged, planning only 1 rate cut for the year, raising inflation expectations, and adding Middle East risk warnings. Dot plot (interest rate path): End of 2026: 3.4% (only 1 rate cut for the year, 25bp), End of 2027: 3.1% (another 1 rate cut, 25bp), 2028 and long-term: 3.1% (long-term rates raised 0.1 percentage points from December).

Post-meeting, Powell released strong hawkish signals: emphasizing no rate cuts if inflation doesn't sustain its decline, while mentioning the possibility of rate hikes!

As mentioned in the previous analysis, my judgment on the market trend is relatively pessimistic, with one core reason being concerns that this meeting would bring more bearish news on top of no rate cuts. As expected, my concerns came true.

Bitcoin reacted early, accelerating after breaking below the 73,000 support level, currently oscillating around 70,000 support [see Chart 1]

Overall, Bitcoin still has some support here. There might be a spike down breaking 70,000, but there's a small rebound requirement. The probability of retracing upward to confirm trendline breakdown is still relatively high, with the current position around 74,000 [see Chart 2]

Looking at larger timeframes, daily divergence has already formed, the 2-day engulfing pattern of one yin swallowing three yangs—these all point to expectations that this rebound may be topping. Therefore, small rebounds aren't recommended for entry [see Chart 3]

Operationally, if you followed our recommendations and locked in profits by reducing positions in the 74,000-75,000 range, you can patiently wait for support opportunities at the bottom edge of the descending flag, positioned around 66,000. This offers both offensive and defensive advantages with high reward-to-risk ratios.

However, pay attention to this: if the flag pattern's bottom edge breaks effectively, there will be a small waterfall, with new lows being highly probable. The 58,000-59,000 range will be a better opportunity to catch the rebound!

Operational Recommendation: Wait for a retest at 74,000 USD, consider exiting, then re-enter at lower levels.

#美联储3月议息会议 $BTC #BTC走势分析 $ETH

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