The market is "pricing in the risk of rate hikes," but we are still far from the point where "a rate hike cycle has already begun." All risk assets are pulling back, and the core issue is not just sentiment but that macroeconomic conditions are changing. Long-term high oil prices and the resurgence of inflation expectations are the most impactful factors currently affecting the market. More importantly—the market is beginning to re-evaluate the possibility of rate hikes, rather than rate cuts. Current rate expectations are: a 12.4% chance of a 25 basis point hike in April; a 21.9% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point hike by June; and maintaining rates unchanged remains the mainstream view (about 76.5%). This indicates one thing: rate hikes are not the main theme, but they have shifted from "zero expectation" to "a risk that needs to be priced in." Once the market starts pricing in rate hikes, it directly suppresses valuations—especially for the Nasdaq, technology stocks, AI concept stocks, and cryptocurrencies. Another overlooked point is that the new Federal Reserve Chair will not take office until after June. Even with a leadership change, it does not mean an immediate shift toward rate cuts. Monetary policy has never been decided by a single individual; it is a consensus formed through the Fed’s long-term systematic operations.