📊 TradFi Market Outlook | 3/23

US Equities: Cautious Start to the Week
The Nasdaq oscillated at elevated levels last week; this week focus on whether tech stocks can stabilize at the open. Following the Fed's pause on rate hikes, markets have priced in optimistic expectations. If economic data weakens this week, pullback risks warrant caution. S&P 500 key support at 5,600; holding this level keeps the bullish structure intact.

Gold: Bull Market Logic Unchanged
Gold prices continue to receive dual support from geopolitical risk-off flows and de-dollarization. In the short term, a pullback to around $2,900 would present an accumulation opportunity. In the medium to long term, central bank gold-buying trends remain unchanged; $3,000 is just a matter of time.

Crude Oil: Oscillating Strength
Middle East tensions show no material easing; Strait of Hormuz risk premium remains. This week, monitor the latest developments in Iran; if tensions escalate, oil prices could surge again. WTI support at $78.

US Dollar: Under Pressure
Markets are beginning to price in rate-cut expectations ahead of time; the dollar index faces downward pressure. A weaker dollar will benefit gold, commodities, and emerging market assets.

Bond Market: Yields Retreating from Highs
10-year US Treasury yields edged lower, indicating market concerns about slowing economic growth and rising risk-off sentiment.

Today's Core View:
Safe-haven assets (gold) remain strong, US equities under pressure at elevated levels. This week's key variable is economic data and geopolitical developments. Hold positions and wait for signals; avoid chasing rallies.

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