📌 According to CME FedWatch data, traders have abandoned rate cuts in April, with the probability of maintaining rates unchanged at 92.8%.

Besides the United States, central banks in several other major economies that were prepared to gradually cut rates are now all turning hawkish—

📍 The Bank of England unanimously approved maintaining the base rate unchanged, with markets pricing in two rate hikes of 25 basis points each within the year.

📍 Europe is more sensitive to energy price shocks, with markets betting on at least one rate hike within the year.

📍 The Reserve Bank of Australia has already hiked rates, with markets betting on an additional 65 basis points of hikes within the year.

📍 South Korea and India, with markets betting on four rate hikes each over the next two years.

A war has completely overturned global monetary policy, with the pricing of all assets swinging back and forth between two completely opposite scenarios of "stagflation" and "ceasefire."

In this environment, the most dangerous operation is betting on a one-sided direction;

Whatever you do, don't get cocky with some flashy moves—keeping your hands still is the best strategy!