Bitcoin recovered to over $70,000, but the downward trend still looks intact.

Crypto markets gained ground on Monday after the US delayed planned strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure. This eased some short-term risk and pushed the total market cap up by about 3% to $2.53 trillion. Bitcoin recovered above $70,000, Ethereum rose above $2,100, and XRP held support around $1.40. However, this seems more like a temporary relief bounce, not a clear trend reversal.

The pause in military action is temporary and depends on ongoing negotiations. Tensions remain high, and oil prices are still elevated near $89 after recently hitting $100. High energy costs can keep inflation from dropping, which in turn supports a hawkish stance from central banks. The IMF has also warned about inflation rising alongside slowing economic growth. So while the sentiment has improved a bit in the short term, the bigger economic picture remains challenging.

Looking at Bitcoin on the daily chart, the downtrend continues after price rejected the supply zone between $86,000 and $88,000. It’s making lower highs and lower lows and trading below the 200-day EMA, which suggests ongoing downward pressure. The 50-day EMA is acting as resistance, and price is currently stuck between support at $69,100 and resistance near $72,200. The rejection near $72,200 indicates sellers are still stepping in during rallies. The MACD is flattening near zero, showing bearish momentum is slowing, but there’s no clear sign of a bullish turnaround yet.

Key levels to watch are clear. A daily close above $72,200 could push Bitcoin up to $78,000–$80,000. The main resistance stands between $86,400 and $88,800. On the downside, if $69,100 breaks, the next target would be around $65,000, with stronger support near $60,000–$62,000.

Sentiment remains weak. The Fear & Greed Index stays in extreme fear territory, and inflows have slowed to about $230 million. There were also $405 million in outflows after the Fed maintained rates and signaled a hawkish outlook. This is keeping gains in check across crypto.

In conclusion, this recent price action looks like a bounce due to easing geopolitical tensions, but the broader market setup hasn’t changed. Bitcoin is still below key resistance and the 200-day EMA, which means downward bias persists. Momentum is stabilizing rather than reversing, and low participation shows that traders remain cautious.

Unless Bitcoin breaks above $72,200 on a daily close, it’s best to view this as a range-bound move inside a downtrend, not the start of a new bullish phase. A confirmed breakout above resistance would be needed to shift momentum, while falling below $69,000 may trigger further declines. For now, the market is waiting and reacting to key levels instead of chasing momentum.

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