Gold's trajectory will depend less on geopolitical headlines

Gold has fallen for ten consecutive trading days, marking the longest losing streak on record. Market optimism initially surged after Trump's comments on potential Middle East progress, but quickly faded. Iran previously dismissed negotiation possibilities, and reports indicated Gulf allies could be involved. The escalating conflict has amplified inflation risks and reinforced expectations that rates may remain elevated for a longer period, creating headwinds for non-yielding assets like gold. Since the conflict erupted on February 28, gold has declined weekly as rising energy prices and geopolitical risk are increasingly being offset by higher real yields and a stronger dollar. Recent weakness has also been exacerbated by forced selling, as investors close gold positions to offset losses elsewhere in their portfolios, rather than due to deteriorating long-term fundamentals for gold.

Ultimately, gold's trajectory will depend less on geopolitical headlines and more on how these events impact inflation, monetary policy expectations, and real rates. #特朗普对伊朗军事打击推迟五天 #黄金创43年来最大单周跌幅