#贵金属领涨 Gold Price Surges 400 Dollars Overnight! Reversal or Flash in the Pan?

Just yesterday, the international gold market staged a breathtaking "V-shaped reversal," violently rallying 400 dollars from the 4,100 dollar level, powerfully breaking through the 4,500 dollar mark. What market logic lies hidden behind this dramatic spike?

01 The Surge

On March 25, 2026, the global gold market witnessed a stunning reversal. International gold prices violently rallied 400 dollars from the 4,100 dollar per ounce level, forcefully breaking through the 4,500 dollar threshold, staging a spectacular V-shaped turnaround.

This dramatic shift contrasts sharply with the severe decline from the previous week. On March 23, amid escalating Middle East tensions, gold plummeted over 7% in a single day, marking the largest weekly decline since 1983, even breaking below the 4,200 dollar mark.

China's domestic gold market reacted intensely as well. On March 25, Chow Sang Sang gold jewelry rose 68 yuan to 1,418 yuan per gram compared to the previous day, while brands like Chow Tai Fook, Luk Fook, Chow Hong Jewelers, and Laomiao Gold all saw prices increase 66 yuan per gram.

Spot gold continued rallying, consecutively breaking through 4,500 and 4,600 dollar levels intraday. As of 10:07 on March 25, it pulled back slightly to above 4,590 dollars per ounce with a 3% gain, up 6.15% year-to-date.

02 Reasons

The core catalyst behind this sudden gold surge was unexpected diplomatic intervention from the Trump administration. On March 24, Trump announced a five-day delay in military strikes against Iranian energy facilities, citing "positive progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations."

This move rapidly eased Strait of Hormuz blockade risks, triggering a triple chain reaction: safe-haven fund reflows, weakening dollar pressure, and technical buy-back rallies.

On March 25, Everbright Futures analysis indicated that easing U.S.-Iran sentiment expectations became the primary driver of market sentiment improvement. Oil price declines alleviated concerns about sustained inflation, creating a favorable environment for gold as an inflation hedge asset.

China Postal Securities noted that gold's allocation value would resurface after market liquidity concerns ease, with the People's Bank of China's continued gold purchases in February boosting market confidence.

03 Trends

Geopolitical events are merely the trigger; the underlying logic of gold's strong rebound lies in the structural evolution of the global monetary credit system. Global central banks have maintained net gold purchases for 16 consecutive years, with China's central bank increasing holdings for 16 consecutive months, providing support for gold's long-term value.

Central bank gold buying wave establishes value floor: Global central banks continuously increased gold holdings in 2025-2026, with China's central bank maintaining purchases for 15 consecutive months. 95% of central banks plan continued increases in 2026, providing rigid support for gold prices.

This "de-dollarization" trend stems from elevated U.S. debt levels and geopolitical uncertainties weakening dollar credibility, making gold a core option for foreign reserve diversification.

Monetary surplus versus inelastic supply mismatch: Global M2 maintains a sustained 6%-8% growth rate, while annual gold supply growth stands at only 1.5%. This "monetary abundance versus scarce resources" dynamic continuously elevates gold's long-term pricing floor.

04 Risks

Gold's violent fluctuations expose deep market contradictions. "Failed safe-haven" warnings: Gold's anomalous March 23 plunge during Middle East conflicts reveals it has become an "overcrowded trade."

Investors selling gold for liquidity during conflict's initial stages reflects how short-term prices are easily driven by sentiment.

Policy sensitivity surge: Trump's single-day comments triggering 400 dollar fluctuations demonstrate gold's geopolitical ties far exceed historical levels. This high volatility demands stronger risk tolerance from investors.

Technical concerns persist: Despite breaking 4,500 dollars, the 4,300-4,500 dollar range still faces pressure from trapped positions, with potential consolidation oscillations in the near term. While UBS and peers project highs of 6,200 dollars, Goldman Sachs warns of potential central bank gold purchase momentum weakening.

05 Recommendations

Tian Lihui, finance professor at Nankai University, states that current precious metals market volatility has exceeded normal correction ranges, entering a high-intensity, high-uncertainty abnormal phase.

Ordinary investors are better suited to long-term allocation through leverage-free methods like gold accumulation or gold ETFs.

Core gold investment principles: Strategic positioning beats short-term speculation. Gold's core function is inflation hedging and monetary credit offsetting, not wealth-building shortcuts.

Staggered position building counters volatility: With ongoing central bank gold purchases and de-dollarization trends, phased deployment using dips is more prudent than chasing rallies.

Tool selection determines success: Ordinary investors should participate via gold ETFs (low barrier, high liquidity) or physical gold bars (no leverage risk), avoiding futures trading traps.

This lightning-fast battle toward the 4,500 dollar level confirms: gold's short-term volatility mirrors geopolitical games, while long-term trends are imprints of monetary credit evolution.