Actually, S3 has already started. The further the Middle East conflict progresses, the smaller its impact on the crypto space will be. The Russia-Ukraine war is a cautionary tale. However, comparing the two, their nature differs. The former involves resource plundering, while the latter involves threats to survival territory. Short-term impacts are inevitable, after all, the crypto circle has always been quick to react to any developments.

Given the US's track record, it's unlikely to allow itself to get bogged down in war for the long term. The longer it drags on, the more its position as the global hegemon loses credibility. Once objectives are achieved, it will extricate itself and open up the next battlefield. Don't be fooled by Trump's daily rhetoric flying everywhere, but when it comes down to actual action, Iran won't capitulate to him either.