Collective outburst after reaching the limit of suppression. Chinese investors woke up to a changed global market:

- The US stock market rebounded violently, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 2.49%, the S&P 500 up 2.91%, and the Nasdaq up 3.83%.
- Gold prices continuously recovered to $4,500 and $4,600.
- Meanwhile, oil prices and the US dollar plummeted, with the dollar index falling below 100.

The turning point occurred at 00:40 Beijing time. Iranian President Pezeshkian stated that if guarantees are provided, they are ready to end the war, and oil prices then plummeted. Subsequently, Trump said negotiations with Iran were progressing smoothly, and oil prices further declined. But it currently looks more like a “one-day rally,” a “mood correction,” and it’s too early to confirm a trend reversal:

First, oil prices are still above $100, with both US crude and Brent crude doing so, which remains a “fragile” environment. During the first hour of Wednesday’s opening, the initial instinctive move of US crude was “upward.” The market’s intense reaction to President Pezeshkian’s statement is because market sentiment is extremely hungry.

Second, although Trump may be considering ending the operation, the key issue—the status of the Strait of Hormuz—remains unresolved. It’s hard to imagine Iran backing down without making concessions. The “guarantee to prevent further aggression” Iran demands is almost an impossible closed loop in the current international political context.

From another perspective, if this “ceasefire willingness” cannot quickly translate into substantive troop withdrawals or open sea lane agreements, market feedback will quickly shift from “surprise” to “anger after being deceived,” leading to a second bottom.

Before Iran’s statement, oil prices also experienced a sharp drop during Tuesday’s Asian trading session. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump was willing to withdraw troops without opening the Strait of Hormuz, which caused the decline. But eight hours later, oil prices rebounded sharply, indicating that the underlying market remains deeply distrustful.

Third, the market has merely shifted from “war mode” back to “normal mode.” The market has been hit continuously for a month and has become “too pessimistic.” Any glimmer of hope becomes extremely valuable.

Additionally, the violent rebound on March 31 had an undeniable background of quarter-end rebalancing. The next focus is on observing US Treasury yields—whether they continue to decline (suggesting recession fears) or rebound (indicating inflation concerns).

At present, it still cannot be confirmed whether this is a trend reversal.