Tonight at 8:30 PM, the non-farm data is about to blow up the scene! Will the crypto market bury people this weekend?

Don’t think it’s all peaceful just because the US stock market is closed—tonight’s March non-farm employment report is the real fuse that could ignite the market.
The market broadly expects the number of new jobs to be around 50,000 to 60,000, and hopes to crawl out of February’s negative growth. But reality is harsh: if the data is above expectations and employment is strong, rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are basically out of the question, and risk assets will keep coming under pressure. If the data misses expectations, rate-cut expectations may be lifted, but the Middle East geopolitical conflict plus high oil prices will send inflation expectations soaring—either way, it’s a no-win situation.
What’s even worse is that today, US stocks, gold and silver, and crude oil are all closed. After the data comes out, there’s no way to trade it immediately, so all emotions and expectations will have to be held until the market opens next Monday, when everything will be released at once.
Right now, the crypto market is already being beaten down by high oil prices and relatively strong employment data. BTC is just wobbling around 66,800, while ETH has already fallen below 2,100. No matter whether tonight’s non-farm data is good or bad, it feels like a big mine has been planted for next Monday.
Here are a few practical reminders for all crypto friends:
1. Before and after tonight’s data release, don’t go all-in to bet on direction. Liquidity is thin, and volatility is driven mainly by sentiment—so you’re likely to get thrown out.
2. At next Monday’s open, there will most likely be a gap—either a sharp rally or a sharp selloff. Have your risk control set up in advance, and don’t let a one-way move wipe out your positions.
3. The core issue is still the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut expectations combined with Middle East geopolitical risks. Non-farm payroll is just an amplifier—it’s not the root cause.
Remember: before the data lands, all predictions are just guesswork. Protect your principal, wait until the market is truly clear, and then make your move—this is always the most reliable play.