I've just realized an important thing that many traders overlook: what is vesting and why does it significantly impact the coin price? You might have heard of this concept but not fully understand the underlying mechanism.

A vesting schedule is a roadmap for unlocking tokens designed from the project's inception. These tokens may belong to the team, early investors, advisors, or be reserved for the community. Initial token locking is a measure to control supply, preventing whales from dumping tokens for quick profit.

But why is vesting so important? The reason is simple: when a large amount of tokens are unlocked at once, supply and demand change dramatically, and if there's significant selling pressure, the price can plummet rapidly. Market psychology plays a major role here. Investors often sell in anticipation of an upcoming unlock, creating a domino effect.

Let me give you some real examples for better understanding. For TRUMP coin, in late April 2025, unlocking 40 million tokens, about 20% of the circulating supply, caused concern. However, the price of TRUMP then rebounded strongly due to related events. Today, TRUMP is trading at $2.92 with a trading volume of 559.80K, which is a far cry from the unlock day.

On the other hand, APT has a different story. All three unlocks of APT followed a similar pattern: the price rose before the unlock, peaked right at the unlocking moment, then dumped afterward. However, during the third unlock, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline, and APT also dropped accordingly. Currently, APT is at $0.87, up 4.32% in 24 hours.

There are three factors you should pay attention to when predicting the impact of vesting: first is market sentiment, second is the amount of tokens unlocked relative to total supply, third is the recipient of the tokens. If most tokens are held by the team or early investors with significant profits, the likelihood of selling to take profits is high. But if the tokens are allocated to the community, the reaction might be more positive.

Want to track upcoming unlocks without surprises? You can use Tokenomist for detailed unlock schedules, DeFiLlama to view aggregated project data, or follow projects directly on X, Discord, Medium. Many projects also hold AMAs to explain their unlocking plans to reassure investors.

But don’t rush to conclude that every token unlock signals a price drop. You need to analyze more deeply: who will receive the tokens, whether they have incentives to sell, and if there’s any related news. Combining vesting schedule analysis with technical analysis and market news will help you make smarter investment decisions. Wishing you success in trading.