#Gate广场四月发帖挑战

Nearly 600 million tokens unlocked this week—how to rationally view the massive selling pressure?

In the second week of April, the crypto market will face a new wave of supply release pressure. According to multiple on-chain data sources, between April 6 and 12, approximately $597 million worth of tokens are expected to unlock and enter circulation—among which, on April 10 alone, nearly $286 million worth of tokens will be released, the highest peak of the week. Notably, the RAIN token single unlock value is $245 million, making it the “king of selling pressure.” Other tokens’ unlock dates and amounts are listed below—check if any of your holdings are among them!

| Token | Unlock Date | Unlock Quantity | Unlock Value | Circulation Ratio |
|---------|--------------|-------------------|----------------|-------------------|
| RAIN | April 10 | 37.43 billion | ~$245 million | 3.25% |
| ADI | April 9 | 6.99 million | ~$31 million | 0.70% |
| APT | April 12 | ~11.31 million | ~$9.65 million| 0.68% |
| BABY | April 10 | ~612.5 million | ~$7.56–9.12 million | 37.77% |
| MOCA | April 11 | ~291 million | ~$3.73 million| 6.74% |
| STABLE | April 8 | ~8.89 million | ~$23.58 million | 4.13% |
| RED | April 7 | 40.85 million | ~$4.25 million| 13.89% |
| LINEA | April 10 | ~1.38 billion | ~$4.68 million| 5.32% |
| MOVE | April 9 | ~165 million | ~$2.86–2.97 million | 4.92% |
| IO | April 11 | ~13.29 million | ~$1.28–1.30 million | 4.15% |
| PEAQ | April 12 | 84.84 million | ~$1.20 million| 4.23% |
| AGI | April 11 | 99.03 million | ~$1.07 million| 4.59% |

👉 Focus points—among these, three tokens are particularly noteworthy:

1. Largest amount: RAIN

RAIN leads this week with an unlock scale of about $245 million, likely dominating market sentiment. This is the fourth consecutive week that Rain Protocol has topped the linear unlock list. Why does a single-day release of $286 million suggest greater future supply pressure? Because 63% of RAIN tokens are still not in circulation. The upcoming unlock schedule is: after April 10, on May 10, about 49.1 billion tokens (~$320 million) will be released, accounting for 10.7% of the current market cap. Notably, Tokenomics labels this event as “high risk.” From June to September, the same amount will be released each month, continuing until September 2027. Of course, the fact that 68.3% of tokens are allocated to the community also indicates that a significant portion is used for ecosystem incentives rather than immediate selling, and true selling pressure should be assessed with on-chain transfer data.

2. Highest ratio: BABY (37.77%)

Baby’s token unlock ratio is extremely high, making its selling pressure risk the most concerning. The unlock volume (~$8.05 million) is small compared to RAIN, but the 23.30% ratio is one of the most important figures this week. Both Coin Edition reports and on-chain data confirm that BABY will release 632.15 million tokens this week, accounting for approximately 38.98% of the adjusted circulating supply. We believe that if institutions or early investors holding these tokens decide to reduce their positions, market depth may struggle to absorb such a large supply in a short period. In a low-liquidity environment, even medium-sized sell orders can cause slippage effects to be amplified exponentially.

3. Other high-ratio projects: RED (13.89%)

RED’s unlock ratio exceeds 10%. Plus, over the weekend, RED experienced a strong rally, surging over 100%, but has since weakened this morning. Whether this is a “pump and dump” needs to be watched carefully.

👉 Rational perspective—Token unlock ≠ selling

In the face of this week’s $597 million token unlock, with $286 million released by RAIN on April 10, let’s revisit a basic fact: token unlocks do not necessarily mean selling. Unlocking simply means “tokens become tradable,” not “holders will definitely sell.” Actual selling pressure depends on holders’ behavior, influenced by factors like price at the time, cost basis, market trend, and holding purpose.

So, how can we gauge whether holders are really going to sell after unlocking? (Although it’s highly probable) Here are some indicators:

1. On-chain transfer activity before unlock: If a large number of tokens are transferred from project wallets to exchange deposit addresses in the days leading up to the unlock, it indicates clear selling intent.

2. Changes in exchange order book depth: Monitor RAIN/USDT or RAIN/USDC order book depth. If buy-side depth decreases, it suggests the market is digesting the expected unlock.

3. Holder structure: Tokenomics data shows that on April 10, the main recipients of unlocked tokens are the community (68.3%) and internal teams (29.9%). Compared to unlocks dominated by institutional investors, community holders’ selling behavior is usually more dispersed.

Finally, attitude matters—facing massive unlocks and selling pressure, we should “stay calm strategically and pay attention tactically.” If you hold tokens with large unlocks, keep an eye on the market and consider reducing your position in advance to mitigate risk. If you don’t hold these tokens or the unlock ratio is small, there’s no need to panic excessively—after all, unlocks happen every day; get used to it.