#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Trading volume fully receding across the board! Bitcoin holds its ground as expected, and the fifth-wave decline could be ready to launch at any moment! April 7 market analysis

Early News:
1. Strategy: Increased holdings by 4,871 Bitcoin last week;
2. Strategy: Unrealized losses of approximately $4.729 billion, Bitmine unrealized losses around $7.202 billion;
3. U.S. CFTC Chairman: The federal regulatory framework is already clear that the CFTC has authority to regulate prediction markets:
4. SEC Chairman: The crypto safe harbor proposal has been submitted to the White House for review, which will allow projects to raise funds without immediate registration;
5. It has been reported that the President of Argentina had call records with personnel from the LIBRA project, and his “no relation” claim has been questioned
6. A U.S. court rules that New Jersey has no authority to restrict Kalshi sports prediction contracts;
7. OpenAl plans to hold an IPO as early as the fourth quarter:
8. Polymarket plans to upgrade its trading engine and launch the native stablecoin Polymarket USD;
9. Bitmine increased its holdings by 71,252 ETH last week, with its staking scale surpassing $7 billion;
10. South Korea fintech company Toss plans to issue a native cryptocurrency:
11. On-chain perpetual contract trading cools down: DEX trading volume has been falling for 5 consecutive months, down nearly 50% from its peak:
12. Strive increased holdings by 113 BTC, bringing total holdings to 13,791;
13. Empery Digital reduced holdings by 370 BTC last week, bringing total holdings down to 2,989.
Currently, BTC’s long-side momentum and volume continue to weaken. Market support relies entirely—barely maintained—on expectations for Trump’s TACO policy.
4-hour cycle: Since rebounding from the 60,000 level, the long-side volume curve has been declining step by step. Even if the price pushes high to around 70,300 during this leg, no incremental capital has shown up to enter long positions in the rebound phase, leaving bulls with seriously insufficient confidence.
Daily cycle: The evening 8 PM close will very likely settle as a bearish inverted hammer K candle. Selling pressure above has already become clearly visible. The price only briefly touched the 58-day medium- to long-term rising trendline and failed to achieve an effective breakout. The trendline’s suppression remains strongly in place, and the bulls have been unable to break through. Order book: Exchange-placed sell orders have quietly increased in volume, and the short-side strength has been gradually laid in. Currently, the main force on the short side is still observing and stockpiling strength, waiting for two major key developments: Trump-related decisions on the morning of April 8, and the subsequent release of CPI inflation data—at which point the move may be concentrated.
From the overall picture, the weekly 4th-wave dead-cat bounce is nearing its end, and the rebound momentum has been completely exhausted. The subsequent weekly 5th-wave main sell-off is about to begin. Positions must be handled with caution in terms of risk control, and you should plan ahead to respond.