#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 4.8 Gold opens with a violent surge, can the momentum continue? Intraday Gold Analysis

What recent news factors are affecting gold and crude oil trends? How should we assess the bullish or bearish outlook for gold in the near future?
On Wednesday (Beijing time, April 8) during the Asian session, spot gold rose over 2.5%, trading near $4,823 per ounce. Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, and Iran accepted the ceasefire agreement. US-Iran negotiations will begin in Islamabad on the 10th. Meanwhile, the market is awaiting the Federal Reserve meeting minutes and data; US crude oil plummeted over 19%, trading around $91.27 per barrel, possibly testing the $90 level intraday. Additionally, the US dollar index also hit a two-week low at 99.01, down about 0.64%. The sharp decline in oil prices eased inflation concerns, dampening expectations for Fed rate hikes. US stock index futures surged over 2%, hitting a three-week high, and the demand for safe-haven assets like the dollar decreased significantly. Notably, China's central bank announced on Tuesday that its gold reserves at the end of March increased to 74.38 million ounces, up 160k ounces from the previous month, marking the 17th consecutive month of gold accumulation. This steady gold reserve strategy further boosted market bullish sentiment and added momentum to gold prices.
In the coming period, investors should closely monitor developments in the Middle East, including progress in US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad and changes in risk appetite in oil and stock markets. Meanwhile, macroeconomic data will also be influential. On Wednesday (early Thursday Beijing time), the Fed’s March meeting minutes will be released; on Thursday, US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data will be published; and on Friday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released. Additionally, New Zealand’s Reserve Bank interest rate decision and speeches by several Fed officials are scheduled for Wednesday, requiring market attention.
Overall, the unexpected announcement of a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East by Trump injected a "stabilizer" into the tense geopolitical situation. The significant pullback in oil prices and the strong rebound in gold not only reflect rapid market pricing of peace expectations but also show global investors switching swiftly between risk and opportunity. Over the next two weeks, whether US-Iran negotiations can proceed smoothly and whether Middle East peace can truly be achieved will remain key variables influencing global commodities and financial markets.
4.8 Gold Market Trend Analysis:
Technical Analysis of Gold: Last night was indeed unusual. US-Iran finally reached a two-week ceasefire agreement, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining open during this period. Oil prices declined, and the Fed’s rate cut expectations heated up again. Gold prices also broke through resistance at 4700 amid fluctuations. Currently, gold is trading above the 4800 level, with strong bullish momentum. There is still considerable room to push towards 4890-4900. However, it’s important to note that although gold has surged back above 4800, this is mainly due to the sharp declines in oil and the dollar. Of course, there is also the possibility of continued market oscillation, especially since gold has recently been resilient and not falling. Market institutions are watching closely, and there’s a risk they may push the bullish trend back down, especially since the ceasefire agreement is not yet fully confirmed. Gold could face a significant topping and correction. Therefore, today’s short-term trading should be approached with caution.
For today’s daytime trading, gold opened firmly above 4700 and surged to a high of 4857 before pulling back. The overall bullish momentum is very strong. For short-term positioning, it’s advisable to first look for a correction to repair the rally, as the ceasefire agreement is not yet fully confirmed, and the upward momentum may not sustain strongly. We can use the ceasefire as a reason to focus on buying dips at lower levels. Do not chase high positions directly, as this could lead to being trapped at the top. Currently, the first resistance is at 4850, with a correction expected towards support around 4750-4740. As long as 4700 is not broken downward, focus on buying at lower levels and waiting for the ceasefire confirmation. The key resistance levels are 4850-4900; if the ceasefire is fully confirmed and prices break and hold above 4900, then the next target is the 5000 level.
In summary, for today’s short-term trading, Gold recommends mainly buying on dips and selling on rebounds. The short-term resistance is at 4850-4900, and support is at 4740-4750. Traders should follow the rhythm closely, control positions and stop-losses strictly, and avoid holding against the trend. Real-time levels will be updated during trading. Welcome to join us for live analysis and group updates.
4.8 Gold Trading Strategy Reference:
Short Position Strategy:
Strategy 1: Short gold on rebounds near 4840-4850 in batches (buy dips), with 2/10 position size, stop-loss at 4870, target around 4800-4770, and if broken, watch for 4750. (This strategy is time-sensitive; more detailed layout suggestions are shared internally with DingTalk live trading students.)
Long Position Strategy:
Strategy 2: Buy dips around 4750-4760 in batches (buy rises), with 2/10 position size, stop-loss at 4730, target around 4820-4850, and if broken, target 4900.
Risk Reminder: All operations should strictly control position sizes and set stop-losses to prevent extreme market moves caused by unexpected events.