4.8 Evening Analysis

BTC 1-hour overbought warning, light position shorting opportunity
Currently, BTC/USDT perpetual contract price is around 72,455, with a 24-hour surge of over 6.3%. The 1-hour RSI(6) remains high at 80.3, continuously in an extremely overbought zone. Short-term upward momentum is severely overextended, and a technical pullback is imminent!

Core logic:

1. The price is significantly deviated from the EMA15/18 short-term moving averages, with a large divergence, indicating a strong need to revert to the mean.

2. The intraday highs at 72,876.5 and the 73,000 level form a double resistance, with upward momentum weakening.

3. The positive impact of Iran toll fee benefits has been fully priced in, and bulls are eager to take profits, with selling pressure ready to be released at any time.

Trading plan:
Entry zone: 72,800-73,000 (gradually try short positions at resistance levels)

First target: 71,400 (EMA15 strong support), second target: 70,800

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