#原油小幅上涨 Gold and crude oil long-short battles intensify, what’s next for the market?

Important reminder: this Thursday, US GDP data and PCE inflation data; on Friday, US CPI and PPI data. While paying close attention to these key indicators, the more important factor is the situation in Iran. Currently, aside from Trump, all parties are drawing K-line charts! As retail investors, our access to information is limited.
Yesterday, gold opened higher in the morning and rose, reaching a high of around 4857/4858 before facing resistance and pulling back. Short-term decline brought prices down to around 4788 for a rebound. At midday, gold rebounded to around 4844 but was again blocked, then shifted to a sideways decline. During European and US trading hours, the downward trend continued, with the lowest point near 4700 in the early morning. The daily chart ultimately closed with a long upper shadow on a bearish candle.
Overall, gold showed a rally and pullback on Wednesday, closing lower on the daily chart, unable to sustain the strong upward momentum in the morning. From the moving average system, the market’s bullish and bearish signals are mixed: the 5-day moving average is beginning to turn downward, while the 10-day remains upward, and the 20- and 30-day moving averages continue to slope downward. This technical pattern generally indicates that the short-term trend may continue to fluctuate without forming a clear directional trend.
For today’s strategy, excluding market news influences, if prices want to further decline, there may be some rebounds to confirm resistance levels above. The short-term range is defined by the high and low points formed at the end of the session: 4700-4735. A dip back to the 4700 support level during the morning is a good opportunity for a short-term long position. Currently, after a significant pullback and stabilization, the main focus remains on buying, with attention to short-term resistance at 4800-4850.
Yesterday, crude oil initially plunged due to the temporary ceasefire news between the US and Iran, falling to around 91 before stabilizing. During the US trading session, tensions between the US and Iran escalated, with Israel attacking Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz closing again. This led to a rebound in oil prices, climbing above 97, but the daily chart still closed with a large bearish candle. Today, crude oil continued to rebound after opening, testing resistance near the 20-day moving average at around 98.4. This was also the main resistance level expected for US oil’s rebound yesterday. Since the 20-day moving average has not been broken, it indicates that despite the news risks, the temporary ceasefire still has a short-term suppressive effect on oil prices.
Today, continue to watch the strong support at 90. A rebound is still expected before any breakdown. A breakdown could gradually test levels around 87-85. On the upside, the first resistance is at 98-100. Although crude oil fluctuates sharply, key support and resistance levels remain very important references. Focus on key levels, participate selectively, and trade less but more carefully!
This article only describes potential future market trends and expresses personal opinions. It is not investment advice and should not be used as a basis for decision-making. For reference only! Investing involves risks; enter the market cautiously. Trading should be flexible based on market conditions, with proper position sizing, fund management, and risk control. No risk control, no trading; keep trading under control!