Weekend Focus: US-Iran Negotiations, the Market May See a Turning Point

On Saturday, the US and Iran returned to the negotiation table, and the first round of talks has already started.
Being able to sit down and talk at this point indicates that both sides do not want to further escalate the conflict, and the probability of ultimately reaching a peace negotiation is not low.
For the market, this is a positive signal.
Once geopolitical risk cools down, risk-aversion sentiment will ease, and funds are more likely to flow back into risk assets.

On the macro front, US initial jobless claims are 219,000, which is still relatively stable overall, but PCE remains on the high side, and inflation is not coming down that easily.

Core Logic
Crude Oil → Inflation → Federal Reserve Policy → Market Liquidity

With oil prices high and inflation not being kept under control, the US will have to find ways to stabilize oil prices,
and the situation in the Middle East is the key variable, so pushing for negotiations is the inevitable choice.

If negotiations land as expected, the big move could again drive toward the 76,000 previous high area.

But liquidity is relatively weak over the weekend, and US stocks are closed.
For the short term, look at the range first: 73,500–72,300—buy the dip and sell the rally.
One-sentence summary
Short-term volatility; the key is next week’s negotiation outcome, which is the true direction.#Gate现货衍生品双双冲进全球前三 #加密市场回升 #原油小幅上涨 $BTC $ETH