Today’s Bitcoin Public Outlook (Monday)

1. Core Indicator Signals (BOLL Band + Price Structure)
Currently, on the 15-minute cycle with parameters BOLL(20,2), the middle band MID=70966.8, upper band UPPER=71411.2, lower band LOWER=70522.4, latest price 71126.2, is above the middle band and within the range below the upper band, seeming relatively strong. However, combined with the structure and momentum, the bearish logic is clear:
1. BOLL Band Structure and Momentum Exhaustion
The trend from 13:00 on April 12 to now is a typical "sharp decline → range-bottoming → weak rebound" structure: initially, a rapid drop from above 74000, with a low point at 70458.2, followed by a rebound, but the rebound strength is severely lacking. Although the current price is above the middle band, the upper band at 71411.2 forms strong resistance. The price has attempted multiple breakthroughs but failed to break through the upper band, indicating that bullish momentum has been exhausted, representing a weak correction after an oversold condition rather than a trend reversal.
Meanwhile, the BOLL band has transitioned from a divergence (during the sharp decline) to a converging state, indicating a narrowing of the trading range. The price is oscillating within the 70500-71400 range. Once the lower band support fails, a new downward move will begin.
2. Divergence Signals Between Moving Averages and Price
The cyan moving average line (corresponding to the BOLL middle band, i.e., the 20-period moving average) shows that the current price of 71126.2 is only slightly above the middle band at 70966.8. The slope of the moving average has shifted from a steep decline to flattening, indicating the trend has shifted from a single-sided downtrend to consolidation. However, the overall moving average remains in a downward channel, and the rebound in price has not changed the bearish alignment of the moving average, which is a correction within a downtrend. After the rebound ends, the decline will continue.
Bitcoin rebounds to 71500-72000 before heading south
First target: 70500
Second target: 69000 (cautiously)#原油小幅上涨 $BTC $GT $ETH