There is a clear signal in today's market: the market is gradually becoming desensitized to war news.

This trend has already appeared last week, and looking again this week, the market's panic response to geopolitical conflicts is noticeably weakening: each new round of negative news results in narrower volatility.

But emotional dulling does not mean the risk has disappeared; the real pressure comes from the fundamentals, and the transmission of fundamentals is much slower.

High oil prices are the core variable of this round of shocks.

Currently, the market's pricing of it is still insufficient, partly because investors are still waiting and watching: will the conflict quickly de-escalate? Will oil prices fall back on their own? This kind of wishful thinking has delayed the market’s response.

Once high oil prices are confirmed as a persistent reality rather than a short-term disturbance, the transmission chain will open sequentially: inflation expectations will rise, expectations for rate cuts will be delayed, corporate costs will increase, consumer demand will be pressured, and risk assets including stocks will face more substantial re-pricing.

Simply put, the current calm in the market is more like a delayed reaction rather than a true digestion and clearing. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战