You have probably heard of the stability of global energy markets as a given. But the war in Iran has completely challenged that assumption. What really intrigues me is that everyone expects it to pass and for central banks to return to easy money. Except that probably won't happen that way.

The thing is, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have exposed something fundamental: global economies are fragile in the face of oil shocks. India, Japan, South Korea — even major economic powers have found themselves in difficulty. And that has triggered a radical shift in policymakers' mindset.

Each nation is now considering energy independence and security as central elements of its strategy. Gone is the global optimization model based on comparative advantage and open supply chains. Experts like Anas Alhajji clearly say: we are heading toward a rapid de-globalization of energy markets. Countries now prioritize control over cost.

What’s interesting is that this means slower innovation, fragmented markets, and structurally higher costs. Western economies will gradually adopt a more Chinese-style approach: strong state direction, strategic reserves, vertical integration, subsidies for national champions. Traditional comparative advantage is no longer the priority. Energy becomes a geopolitical weapon, not just a commodity.

And here’s where it becomes really relevant for us. If structural inflation remains high for years, central banks will no longer have the flexibility they once had. Between 2008 and 2021, overall inflation averaged below 3%. That allowed them to keep rates at zero or even negative, injecting massive liquidity through quantitative easing. That fueled epic gains everywhere — Bitcoin rising from a few dollars to $126,000, stock markets soaring, all of that.

But with persistent inflation, that paradigm shifts completely. Central banks can no longer assume they’ll be able to cut rates at will to stimulate the economy. Liquidity will be more restricted. Yields will be capped. Volatility will become the norm across all markets — stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies.

It’s not just a short-term oil price issue. We’re already talking about impacts on fertilizers, food production, industrial manufacturing. Disruptions are even cutting off supplies of helium and sulfur essential for chip manufacturing. The UN already warns about rising food prices everywhere.

The message is simple: the era of cheap money is over. Investors really need to prepare for a world where inflation is the new normal, where accommodative monetary policy no longer exists, and where traditional comparative advantage gives way to security and self-sufficiency. Yields will be more limited, volatility more significant. It’s a paradigm shift we cannot ignore.