The U.S. stock market hit new highs again, and the Iran situation also showed subtle changes.

First, let’s talk about U.S. stocks. The Nasdaq fell for three months, but within half a month, it surged back and set a new high. Why can U.S. stocks always climb back? The core isn’t the dollar or the U.S. military, but three underlying logics:
1. Global long-term inflation + population growth → the total consumption keeps rising, and most of the core companies in U.S. stocks do business worldwide, so their profits naturally rise with the tide.
2. A strong batch of the world’s top tech, consumer, and resource companies are listed in U.S. stocks → no matter how the world changes, they’re likely to be winners.
3. Shareholder returns are handled well → when they make money, they distribute dividends and do buybacks; they rarely burn money blindly to fight ineffective battles.
Put simply, the long-term rise of U.S. stocks (and most global stock markets) is because, in an inflationary society, companies that stick honestly to their lines of business and then share profits with shareholders naturally “rise with the tide.
Now look at the Iran situation. There has been an important development in the past few days: Reuters reported that Iran is considering opening the southern-side routes of the Strait of Hormuz (on the side closer to Oman—this was originally the main route). They would not block or attack; the condition is that the United States lifts the blockade, removes sanctions, and reaches a ceasefire.
Although neither side has formally admitted it, Reuters has relatively high credibility. More importantly—capital markets have already started pricing in the end of the war in advance: the S&P and the Nasdaq have also refreshed their records.
However, the latest news has some back-and-forth again: the U.S. military expanded the scope of its shipping blockade against Iran (weapons, crude oil, steel, etc.), and Iran issued a verbal warning that if they cause trouble again, they will sink warships. Oil prices rose by 2% in the short term. But no matter how you look at it, it seems more like pressure and talk ahead of negotiations—both uranium enrichment and the strait can make concessions; how could they truly start firing?
A new high in U.S. stocks ≠ the world is at peace. Instead, it’s because global capital keeps voting with its feet under the logic of inflation + concentration in leading firms + shareholder returns.
The expectation that the Iran situation will ease has already been digested in advance by the stock market. Those short-term small hiccups (escalation of the blockade, verbal warnings) are more like chips on the negotiation table and don’t change the overall direction.
So you see, whether it’s the new high in U.S. stocks or the marginal easing of geopolitical risk, the reason behind it is the same thing: capital is pricing down uncertainty. $BTC