# GoldmanEyesPredictionMarkets

When Goldman Sachs Turns to Prediction Markets, Finance Begins to Shift Toward “Probability Pricing”
Goldman Sachs’s focus on prediction markets is not fundamentally about chasing hot topics, but rather a re-examination of “probability finance.” Prediction markets do not forecast the future; instead, they compress dispersed information into prices through capital battles, a mechanism inherently forward-looking. Compared to traditional research reports’ subjective judgments, prediction markets provide not conclusions but “probability of occurrence.”

In highly uncertain fields such as macroecon

From gambling to financial instruments, Goldman Sachs is "de-labeling" prediction markets
For a long time, prediction markets have been labeled as "gambling" and "speculation," making it difficult for them to enter mainstream financial perspectives. Goldman Sachs's focus itself is a move toward de-labeling this sector. The core of prediction markets is not about betting on wins or losses, but about aggregating information through prices, which is essentially no different from futures and options.

The difference lies in the fact that prediction markets focus on "event outcomes" rather than ass

Goldman Sachs Focuses on Prediction Markets, What Crypto Signals Are Being Sent?
Goldman Sachs's attitude is often a precursor to capital trends. When it begins to study prediction markets, it indicates that institutions are reassessing the financial value of decentralized applications. Prediction markets do not rely on a single authority but depend on collective betting to form prices, which aligns closely with the spirit of crypto.

This also means that future competition in the crypto market will not only be about performance and narratives but also about “whether real informational value c

Why does Goldman Sachs value prediction markets? Because they can detect "black swans" in advance.
The greatest value of prediction markets lies in their pursuit of "true expectations," rather than correctness. When most people are unwilling to express their opinions publicly, funds will vote on their behalf. For this reason, prediction markets often exhibit abnormal price fluctuations ahead of major events.
Goldman Sachs focuses on this area mainly from a risk management perspective. Traditional models rely on historical data, while prediction markets directly reflect current expectations and