Bloomberg reported that although the yen has performed poorly this year, it is still likely to be the most favored safe-haven asset for investors during the US presidential election. (Previous summary: Japan's ruling party suffered a devastating defeat in the general election, and the yen hit a three-month low. Will Shigeru Ishiba become the shortest-serving prime minister? The central bank postpones rate hikes.) (Background information: Japan acknowledges the difficulty of resolving inflation. The central bank president cannot sleep every day thinking about the timing of rate hikes, and the yen has depreciated to a three-month low.) Against the backdrop of the Bank of Japan's announcement in March this year to end the era of negative interest rates since 2007 and choose to raise interest rates again by the end of July, the yen has remained weak this year. According to Google Finance data, the USD/JPY exchange rate has risen by 8.81% year-to-date, which has caused concern among many investors about whether the yen is still a good investment choice. Source: Google Finance Bloomberg: The yen may be the best safe haven asset during the US presidential election In this context, Bloomberg pointed out in a report yesterday (29th) that although the yen has performed poorly this year, it still has the potential to provide a safe haven for investors during the US presidential election. The specific reasons include: 1. According to statistical data, the yen has performed better than the most popular safe-haven assets such as the US dollar, Swiss franc, US Treasury bonds, and euro in past US elections. 2. Japan's record-breaking current account balance of 3.02 trillion yen, strong yen liquidity, and relatively low inflation rate have all contributed to the increased attractiveness of the world's third-largest trading currency as a store of value. 3. During the Trump campaign, Japan was basically not threatened by import tariffs from the United States, which may have increased investors' confidence in Japan. In response, Ales Koutny, Head of International Rates at Vanguard Group, the world's second-largest asset management company, said: The yen is the best safe haven in the US election. 4. Currently, the USD/JPY exchange rate is at a low level, providing room for market volatility and government intervention to boost the yen price. 5. Due to the uncertainty of the US election and the prospect of the US government expanding its fiscal deficit, people's confidence in the US dollar and US Treasury bonds has weakened, and investors' concerns about other traditional safe-haven assets have also increased the attractiveness of the yen. In this regard, Stephen Miller, a consultant at GSFM, said: The yen is cheap, and the Bank of Japan is one of the few central banks that is still tightening monetary policy. If the US bond market experiences digestion problems due to the risk of fiscal deficits, US Treasury bonds may not be the safest asset, and the same goes for the US dollar. Morgan Stanley: It is difficult for the US dollar to be challenged at a low level. However, there are also voices that believe that the yen is still not as attractive as the US dollar. For example, Morgan Stanley believes that US Treasury bonds are more able to withstand selling pressure caused by a Republican victory led by Trump: Given that the US dollar accounts for 88% of the $7.5 trillion foreign exchange market, its dominant position is difficult to challenge. In addition, Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group, also said: The yen used to have a classic safe-haven status, but I'm not sure if it still maintains that status now. It seems that the current yen is more related to interest rate differentials. Finally, it is worth mentioning that the results of the Japanese House of Representatives election were announced on the 28th of this week, and the ruling coalition composed of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito only obtained 215 seats, which is considered the biggest defeat of the Liberal Democratic Party since 2009. Before the formation of a new government, the yen will also face significant selling pressure due to political uncertainty. Related reports: Japan BTC/Ether spot ETF promoted! Mitsubishi UFJ, Nomura Securities, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation and other institutions propose support. The effect of Japan's interest rate hike: The collapse of zombie companies: bankruptcies this year exceed 5,000, and the debt reaches 1.38 trillion yen. Japan acknowledges the difficulty of resolving inflation. The central bank president cannot sleep every day thinking about the timing of rate hikes, and the yen has depreciated to a three-month low. (Will the weak yen be the best safe haven asset as the US election storm approaches?) This article was originally published on BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media in the dynamic region.
Xem bản gốc
Nội dung chỉ mang tính chất tham khảo, không phải là lời chào mời hay đề nghị. Không cung cấp tư vấn về đầu tư, thuế hoặc pháp lý. Xem Tuyên bố miễn trừ trách nhiệm để biết thêm thông tin về rủi ro.
Cuộc bầu cử tổng thống Mỹ đến gần, đồng Yên yếu đuối có phải là tài sản tránh rủi ro tốt nhất?
Bloomberg reported that although the yen has performed poorly this year, it is still likely to be the most favored safe-haven asset for investors during the US presidential election. (Previous summary: Japan's ruling party suffered a devastating defeat in the general election, and the yen hit a three-month low. Will Shigeru Ishiba become the shortest-serving prime minister? The central bank postpones rate hikes.) (Background information: Japan acknowledges the difficulty of resolving inflation. The central bank president cannot sleep every day thinking about the timing of rate hikes, and the yen has depreciated to a three-month low.) Against the backdrop of the Bank of Japan's announcement in March this year to end the era of negative interest rates since 2007 and choose to raise interest rates again by the end of July, the yen has remained weak this year. According to Google Finance data, the USD/JPY exchange rate has risen by 8.81% year-to-date, which has caused concern among many investors about whether the yen is still a good investment choice. Source: Google Finance Bloomberg: The yen may be the best safe haven asset during the US presidential election In this context, Bloomberg pointed out in a report yesterday (29th) that although the yen has performed poorly this year, it still has the potential to provide a safe haven for investors during the US presidential election. The specific reasons include: 1. According to statistical data, the yen has performed better than the most popular safe-haven assets such as the US dollar, Swiss franc, US Treasury bonds, and euro in past US elections. 2. Japan's record-breaking current account balance of 3.02 trillion yen, strong yen liquidity, and relatively low inflation rate have all contributed to the increased attractiveness of the world's third-largest trading currency as a store of value. 3. During the Trump campaign, Japan was basically not threatened by import tariffs from the United States, which may have increased investors' confidence in Japan. In response, Ales Koutny, Head of International Rates at Vanguard Group, the world's second-largest asset management company, said: The yen is the best safe haven in the US election. 4. Currently, the USD/JPY exchange rate is at a low level, providing room for market volatility and government intervention to boost the yen price. 5. Due to the uncertainty of the US election and the prospect of the US government expanding its fiscal deficit, people's confidence in the US dollar and US Treasury bonds has weakened, and investors' concerns about other traditional safe-haven assets have also increased the attractiveness of the yen. In this regard, Stephen Miller, a consultant at GSFM, said: The yen is cheap, and the Bank of Japan is one of the few central banks that is still tightening monetary policy. If the US bond market experiences digestion problems due to the risk of fiscal deficits, US Treasury bonds may not be the safest asset, and the same goes for the US dollar. Morgan Stanley: It is difficult for the US dollar to be challenged at a low level. However, there are also voices that believe that the yen is still not as attractive as the US dollar. For example, Morgan Stanley believes that US Treasury bonds are more able to withstand selling pressure caused by a Republican victory led by Trump: Given that the US dollar accounts for 88% of the $7.5 trillion foreign exchange market, its dominant position is difficult to challenge. In addition, Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group, also said: The yen used to have a classic safe-haven status, but I'm not sure if it still maintains that status now. It seems that the current yen is more related to interest rate differentials. Finally, it is worth mentioning that the results of the Japanese House of Representatives election were announced on the 28th of this week, and the ruling coalition composed of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito only obtained 215 seats, which is considered the biggest defeat of the Liberal Democratic Party since 2009. Before the formation of a new government, the yen will also face significant selling pressure due to political uncertainty. Related reports: Japan BTC/Ether spot ETF promoted! Mitsubishi UFJ, Nomura Securities, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation and other institutions propose support. The effect of Japan's interest rate hike: The collapse of zombie companies: bankruptcies this year exceed 5,000, and the debt reaches 1.38 trillion yen. Japan acknowledges the difficulty of resolving inflation. The central bank president cannot sleep every day thinking about the timing of rate hikes, and the yen has depreciated to a three-month low. (Will the weak yen be the best safe haven asset as the US election storm approaches?) This article was originally published on BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media in the dynamic region.