Over the past two weeks, U.S. gasoline prices have surged from approximately $3.00-3.25 per gallon to $3.854, representing a cumulative increase of nearly 20%. Just in the past week alone, prices have surged another 6%+, pushing them back to levels close to the highs since the beginning of 2024, with some regions even approaching the extreme ranges seen in 2022.

More importantly, it's not the rise itself, but the fact that prices haven't declined much after rising.

From a technical structure perspective, this segment clearly represents a news-driven acceleration, while the current high-level consolidation is essentially a repricing by bulls and bears of supply risks resulting from the Middle East situation. In other words, the market isn't treating this as a "short-term shock," but rather pricing it in as "sustained disruption."

And that's where it gets interesting:

If oil prices don't fall back, inflation won't come down; if inflation won't come down, interest rate cuts become difficult; if rates don't fall, risk assets will struggle to rise comfortably.

#WTI