If disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, then agricultural commodities are indeed showing signs of "about to take off"～

Many people are watching oil, but oil is just the switch. Once energy prices spike, fertilizer, transportation, and storage costs all rise across the board, and agricultural costs are lifted as a whole. This is a typical "cost-push bull market". The 2022 round was essentially a double resonance of energy and geopolitics～
From a cyclical perspective, agricultural commodities often lag behind energy in their startup phase, but once the trend is confirmed, they tend to have more sustained rallies. Using wave theory, this looks more like the eve of transitioning from the startup phase into the main uptrend, rather than the end of the move～
But note one thing: this type of rally doesn't move in a straight line; it rises while shaking out weak hands.
So the conclusion is simple——
If the straits situation drags on as a "series", agricultural commodities will likely follow suit and launch their own "long-running storyline"～