Ethereum Medium-to-Long Term Analysis

Currently, spot ETH is showing a slight inflow state, while ETF has small outflows. Long positions still dominate in terms of net holdings. Looking at intraday buy/sell volumes at this level, buy orders are clearly larger than sell orders, and the data suggests a higher probability of upward movement. The current position is near the 2023 trendline of this rally, at the intersection of a daily support platform and the trendline. The support strength here is quite strong, so we can only hope this level holds up, as it is strong support. If it breaks and fails to rebound above 2020 on the 4-hour level, oscillation below 2020 basically signals future movement toward 1026 support, 1820 support, and 1648 for medium-term spot entry swing positions. These will all come eventually. According to the chart, these positions are all daily-level strong support where swing long positions can be established with solid profit potential. If support holds around 2020, tonight we should watch for shorting entries around 2122 to capture swing profits. If we break above 2122, continue swing trading while waiting for the strong resistance at 2170. If that breaks, we should see a volume surge toward new highs. Watch 2250 and 2720 overhead. Personally, I believe the current chip structure, news environment, timing, and global economic backdrop cannot support a bull market liftoff. Any upside holding is an opportunity for us to establish long-term shorts. A decline to around 1650 should be a high-probability event—it's just a matter on medium-term whether we get liquidation hunts shaking out shorts for continued drops or direct declines. I still recommend entering at the chart positions with stop-losses, then reduce positions to game trend continuation. Futures are high-risk—not like spot. When profitable, lock in gains and reduce. Don't go all-in on emotion for extended periods. Adding to winners while holding breaks-even is the secret to staying alive and achieving results. Everyone pay attention to safety, likes and shares appreciated.