Bitcoin (BTC) — Macro Pivot and Halving Narrative in Resonance

Core Logic: Bitcoin's recent surge is essentially a "Davis Double" of loose dollar liquidity expectations and structural supply scarcity on the supply side.

Why the increase?

1. Correction in Fed rate cut expectations: As U.S. economic data (particularly non-farm payrolls and CPI) shows inflation cooling, market bets on a September Fed rate cut have warmed up again. As the asset most sensitive to liquidity, Bitcoin is trading the "loose expectations" first. The dollar index weakens, funds flow out of U.S. treasuries, seeking returns in higher-risk assets.

2. Continued net inflows into spot ETFs: Since the approval of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs, Bitcoin has undergone an identity transformation from "fringe asset" to "compliant allocation asset." Traditional financial institutions (such as pension funds and hedge funds) continue to buy through ETF channels, rapidly draining the circulating supply on exchanges, creating a "seller liquidity crisis."

3. Lagged realization of halving effects: Although the halving event occurred months ago, its elevation of mining cost lines (currently mainstream mining machine costs at $35,000-$40,000 per BTC) often constitutes strong support in late bull markets. As demand increases, the power of supply halving begins to manifest. $BTC

Downside/Correction Risk Points:

· Mt. Gox repayment selling pressure: A large amount of Bitcoin that has been dormant for years is about to be repaid to creditors. Once these low-cost holdings enter the market, they will cause massive selling pressure in the short term.
· Macro data volatility: If U.S. inflation shows stickiness, causing the Fed to delay rate cuts, Bitcoin could quickly give back gains. #創作者衝榜