If his only goal were simply to “cash out”… well, that would actually be better.

Hello everyone. Yesterday, we reflected on Biden (on the final day of the “Biden era”). Today, I want to talk about the incoming Trump, specifically about his high-profile issuance of a Memecoin named after himself on the eve of his inauguration. According to public reports, this coin skyrocketed by over 20,000% in a short period, with a current market capitalization exceeding $20 billion. To be honest, it took me an entire day to come to terms with the fact that this wasn’t one of Trump’s infamous “Fake News” moments. I found it utterly absurd—a president-elect of the United States choosing to launch his own Memecoin on the eve of his inauguration? The impact of such an act is no less shocking than a virtuous, devout nun with impeccable reputation suddenly announcing her plans to enter the adult film industry just before being canonized by the Vatican. At one point, I even wondered if Trump had decided not to take the job at all.

But after careful thought, I believe Trump may indeed have his own plans—plans that, if successful, could very well push the future of the United States and even humanity into an unknown and high-risk abyss. Please allow me to use this long article to analyze the logic behind Trump’s actions, as well as the costs and risks involved.

Before officially starting this article, I’d like to apologize and provide some clarification to two groups of readers who may take offense. The first group consists of Trump’s hardcore supporters in China. If you’ve been a longtime reader of mine, you’d know that I’ve always been relatively friendly and moderate toward Trump compared to most in the Chinese-language media space. Many of my earliest readers were Trump sympathizers or even staunch supporters. However, I believe that sympathizing with or supporting Trump is fine, but it must not turn into personal worship. If your support for Trump turns into blindly following everything he approves and opposing everything he criticizes, how is that fundamentally different from the extreme personal worship you detest and oppose? Such blind support not only deviates from the valuable ideals of liberty and conservatism but also represents the ultimate betrayal of the principles of democracy and the rule of law in modern society. What we believe in and follow are ideas and systems, not individuals—never individuals. This truth stands above all ideological disputes. Those who refuse to acknowledge it lack a modern perspective. A character like Black Whirlwind Li Kui from Water Margin, who would kill without question at the behest of Song Jiang, embodies this mindset far better.

The second group of readers likely includes the so-called “crypto bigwigs.” In this article, I will lean toward a negative evaluation of Memecoins (note: only Memecoins, not all cryptocurrencies). Even with such cautious phrasing, I’m sure there will still be people from the crypto world criticizing me—“How dare you say that? Clearly, you don’t understand economics!” There’s no way around it; once someone is invested, their interests are tied up in it. I generally don’t deny the value of Memecoins, just as I don’t directly tell friends who return from a trip to certain southwestern regions, proudly showing off their overpriced “silver combs” or “chicken blood jade,” that these trinkets are essentially worthless.

Still, I find the inevitable criticism amusing—when did endorsing Memecoins, altcoins, and speculative coins become a sign of economic expertise? I think such accusations reflect a typical logical fallacy. Does not participating necessarily mean ignorance? By that logic, anyone who criticizes drug use could be dismissed as “not understanding enjoyment,” and anyone opposing prostitution could be questioned as a eunuch. If members of groups like the People’s Temple or Aum Shinrikyo came back to life, they could criticize those condemning their heinous crimes as people who “don’t understand true divinity.”

Perhaps I’m being too harsh, but my point is that effective discussions are never built on slapping labels onto others. In this article, I will outline the reasons for my overall negative assessment of Memecoins. If someone can counter these arguments with reason and evidence, I welcome their rebuttals in the comments. However, I won’t accept dismissive claims like “you don’t understand.” The easiest accusations to make in this world are, one, “you don’t understand,” and two, “you have ulterior motives.” In other words, the infamous “ignorant or malicious” dichotomy. I often suspect that those who are quick to use such arguments are themselves the ones who are either ignorant or malicious.

Alright, now that I’ve prepared for battle, if you accept the above premises, let me take you on a journey of thought.

1. Memecoins Are Not Real Coins

Let me first explain to readers unfamiliar with this space: although the Memecoin (Memecoin) issued by Trump belongs to the same category of digital cryptocurrencies as Bitcoin (Bitcoin), the issuance logic of the two is fundamentally different. To use an analogy, Bitcoin is more like gold in the real world. Its total issuance is bound by natural mathematical laws derived from its mathematical model. This means that even Satoshi Nakamoto, who first proposed and issued Bitcoin, could not decide how many Bitcoins would ultimately exist. The creation of Bitcoin is determined by countless mining machines worldwide through computational power.

Memecoins, on the other hand, are a different story. Strictly speaking, Memecoins do not even deserve to be called coins; they are more akin to digital private stamps or digital commemorative badges. The number of Memecoins issued is entirely determined by the “coin owner” who issues them. The coin owner is the sole “mine” and creator of the Memecoin.

In fact, the concept of Memecoins originated as a playful joke among internet geeks. Take Dogecoin (Dogecoin), issued in 2013 by Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer, for example. Its mascot is the famous Shiba Inu meme. The creators essentially made it clear from the outset: “We’re just joking around, and anyone willing to buy this coin is simply paying for our creativity.”

However, later on, in the internet world of “everything can be speculated,” a very small number of Memecoins unexpectedly continued to hold trading value.

To this day, the issuance and circulation of Memecoins still closely resemble online gambling—issuers and traders need to first exchange a certain amount of Solana (a type of voucher) for USD on a website, register their Memecoin wallet, and then they can start trading or issuing coins. The website does not effectively verify the qualifications of the coin issuer.

So in theory, anyone (and not even necessarily a human—you could even bring a Shiba Inu) can issue a “coin” on such platforms. The value of Memecoins after issuance completely depends on how much people are willing to pay to buy them—in other words, the value of Memecoins is entirely dependent on how much of a “value consensus” they can establish among their fanbase, and in turn, depends on who their promoters are. It’s essentially a way to monetize the popularity of celebrities.

Doesn’t it sound like Memecoins aren’t really a currency but more like signed photos, private stamps, or commemorative medals given out by idols to their fans in the past? Yes, stripping away the superficial flashy technical packaging, Memecoins are essentially just that. They are not like Bitcoin, and have nothing to do with underlying technology or decentralization—on the contrary, their issuance mechanism is the opposite of Bitcoin’s, even more centralized than traditional currencies, centered around the coin issuer.

This is a key point, very important for later.

Because of this, on the Solana chain platform where Trump announced his coin, millions of Memecoins are issued every year, but the number that maintains any trading value after the first month (meaning, the Memecoin you hold can still be sold if someone is willing to buy it) is one in a million. 99.9999% of Memecoins are essentially a game of hot potato and online gambling.

In summary, compared to real currency, Memecoins do not possess any qualifications to become a legitimate currency.

First, they have no reserve at issuance. Although a few Memecoin issuers have promised to exchange a one-to-one ratio for holders if the Memecoin falls below a certain price, so far no fool has actually done this. All coin issuers eventually chose to cash out and run away.

Second, they lack effective control and regulation from a central bank.

Whether a Memecoin will encounter the “insider trading” issue depends entirely on the coin issuer’s mood and conscience. Yet, in the face of enormous temptation, no Memecoin issuer has lasted more than three years without cashing out completely. It has been proven that human consensus and conscience have not progressed enough to decentralize a central bank’s regulatory system, and relying solely on the “gentleman’s agreement” between a social media influencer and their fans is insufficient to maintain the value of a currency. Don’t test human nature.

Finally, and most importantly, it does not have the inherent scarcity like traditional currencies or even Bitcoin.

Traditional currency issuance must be anchored to its reserves, and excessive issuance leads to hyperinflation. The number of Bitcoin issued is also anchored to mathematics; unless God changes 1+1 not to equal 2, no one can create more Bitcoin.

But where is the scarcity guarantee of Memecoins? Nowhere. It’s entirely up to the coin issuer’s mood.

For example, Trump’s announcement that his “Trump Coin” will initially issue 200 million coins and later issue 800 million more, totaling one billion coins, is purely based on his own mood and character.

This is why most Memecoin issuers choose to cash out and run away at certain points—they can’t resist the temptation of unrestrained human nature.

And I think Trump’s statement about issuing the coin is also quite clear. Pay attention to his tweet; he says he is issuing this coin to “celebrate” our victory.

What should be issued to celebrate something? Signed photos, commemorative medals?

When have you ever heard of a country over-issuing its fiat currency to celebrate something?

Even if it did happen, such a country would be on the brink of collapse.

Therefore, Memecoins are not currency at all, and their alternate names—shanzhai coins, fake coins—actually reflect their essence.

But here’s the problem when we analyze it this way—if Trump truly understood the nature of Memecoins, why would he still insist on issuing them?

A man like Trump, who’s not short on money, surely isn’t like those low-tier influencers just looking to “rip off a wave of retail investors” and make some quick cash, right? If that were the case, he would wait until four years later to do it.

Of course, that’s not it. He has much bigger ambitions—

Ambitions so big that, years down the road, when Americans look back on this, they might wish: “Mr. Trump, you were really just trying to rip off a few people for some cash…” And that would have been the best-case scenario!

2. Is Trump Just Trying to “Rip Off Retail Investors”?

Let me first debunk a rumor about Trump. After this event, many people in the Chinese internet circles have been spreading rumors like “Trump issued a coin and made billions (even ‘cashed out’ xxx billion dollars).” This is inaccurate, and in fact, some have disregarded the facts in order to attack Trump.

Whether it’s $24 billion or the latest $100 billion, what is being referred to is the total market value of the currently issued “Trump coin.” With basic stock market knowledge, we know that the total market value cannot directly equate to how much can be “cashed out” or “made.” Having a million doesn’t mean you’re rich if it’s just in assets. If Trump really intended to follow the example of certain short-sighted influencers by cashing out all of his “Trump coins,” it would be akin to “crashing the market” in stocks. The value of Trump coin would rapidly fall, and his arbitrage space would shrink along with his credibility. The money cashed out would still be huge, but it would be far less than the current market value of Trump coin.

And honestly, Trump has businesses; he’s not some broke influencer desperate to monetize his fame. To reduce his coin issuance to just earning retirement money is laughable—according to 2024 statistics, Trump’s total assets amount to $3.2725 billion.

So, how does $3.2 billion compare to the rumored “billions” he supposedly made from this venture? There’s really no difference.

Thus, the rush to say Trump “made a killing” is shallow and ridiculous. It’s as silly as a country farmer imagining that if he were emperor, “all the village’s manure would be under my control.” It’s a complete misreading of Trump’s actual intentions.

So why did the not-so-poor Trump issue a coin? Based on the current information, I think his goal is likely to hijack or privatize the Republican Party’s campaign funds.

Campaign funds are the lifeblood of the two-party system in the U.S. The Republican and Democratic parties, or even factions within them, essentially fight over money. The 2024 U.S. election set a new record, becoming the most expensive election in U.S. history, with both parties spending a combined $15.9 billion. This scale is likely what gives “Trump coin” its true potential value.

But as the saying goes, the wool comes from the sheep. Ultimately, the campaign funds are raised from supporters or industry giants, but how this money is collected, managed, and spent has always been a key factor in determining the power distribution within the Republican and Democratic parties.

I recall the 2016 election, when Hillary and Trump ran against each other. The Democratic Party had an intriguing internal scandal. As Obama was about to leave office, he had a list of major financial backers from his own campaign. According to the tradition of the Democratic Party, Obama should have handed this crucial “donor list” directly to Hillary, the nominee-to-be.

But Obama didn’t do that! Instead, he gave the list to the Democratic National Committee, which then passed it on to Hillary. This delay caused quite a bit of trouble, and Hillary lost to Trump that year, with some of the blame falling on Obama. The two weren’t on good terms afterward.

But why did Obama have to do this? There are many explanations.

Some say it reflects the long-standing friction between the Obama and Clinton families, with Obama being reluctant to endorse Hillary’s fundraising efforts using his own reputation.

Others argue that Obama’s action was an attempt to end the Democratic Party’s long-standing practice of major families privately granting and secretly trading fundraising rights, effectively terminating the “godfather” style traditions within the party where families, big shots, and factions dominate, much like the structure of the New York mafia.

But regardless of the reasoning, the truth remains that whoever controls the “fundraising rights” is the boss, holding the key to whether the party’s candidate will be selected or not.

This truth applies equally to both the Republican and Democratic parties.

On the Republican side, after the 2021 Capitol Hill riot and the betrayal of the establishment, Trump, making a comeback in 2024, has been focused on one thing: trying to transform the traditional Republican Party into his personal MAGA party. In fact, he came very close to achieving this last year.

Trump’s greatest success was the fact that in the 2024 election, Republican campaign funds no longer went into the party’s account as before, but instead went into a private account controlled by Trump’s campaign team. This meant that how the campaign money was spent, what strategies were used for publicity, who received funding, and who did not, were all decisions made solely by Trump.

This change resulted in the fact that in the 2024 election, all Republican campaign activities no longer included any projects that Trump considered “unnecessary” or even those that went against his views, as had happened in 2020.

I have to say, his spending is certainly more strategic than the Republican establishment’s.

And you can imagine that if this model continues in the future, even if Trump is limited by his term and cannot run for the next election four years later, the “successor” that the Republican Party puts forward will certainly come from Trump’s team, or rather, from the

“MAGA Party.”

But how can we ensure that this “ideal future” is realized?

The answer may lie in—Trump coin.

In the first part of the article, we analyzed that meme coins (this term is too cumbersome, let’s call them meme coins from now on) have no real value, and in the past, they were only used to monetize the influence of internet celebrities, “milking the next wave of retail investors and then running away.”

But with Trump, he may develop a different use for meme coins—Trump could use it to “dilute” the American public’s support for the Republican Party, which traditionally peaks during election periods, and transform it into long-term personal support and adoration for him.

To put it simply:

If you’re a middle-right or right-wing voter in the U.S., someone who agrees with the Republican Party’s ideals and generally supports Trump’s views, your main way of showing support for the party and Trump in the past would have been by donating to the party’s account during election periods, or maybe volunteering to canvass.

But once Trump’s coin came out, the situation changed. Now, if you have right-wing enthusiasm and want to shout “Make America Great Again, Trump King!” or “Make America Great Again!” you can immediately log into the Solana blockchain, use your real money to buy some Trump coins, and tell yourself, “I’m showing my support through action!”

In this way, that portion of support is solidified by Trump coin.

And the enthusiasm of right-wing American voters is then “digested” (or more accurately, “stored”) in the background.

But note this—this digestion and storage process will no longer benefit the Republican Party as a whole, but rather Trump personally.

Four years later, when the Republican Party needs to use this stored energy to organize their campaign, they’ll realize that traditional fundraising methods may no longer work. Supporters will say, “I’ve already bought Trump coins!” At that point, the Republican Party will have to beg Trump, who has already “stored” the right-wing funds.

And whether that money is given, and who it goes to, will depend on the whims of the “Emperor Trump.”

We can even make a more extreme assumption (though based on current economic knowledge, I also think this assumption is too sci-fi):

What if four years from now, Trump coin doesn’t go to zero like ordinary meme coins but continues to circulate at high trading values? What would happen then?

The conclusion is that it could really become a “universal token” for managing campaign funds within the American right-wing political groups.

For example, if a candidate for a local election has impressed Trump with their words and actions, Trump could reward them with tens of thousands of “Trump coins,” which they could exchange with right-wing supporters to raise campaign funds, and maybe they would be elected as a congressman.

If this assumption truly becomes a reality, it would mean that Trump not only controls the finances for the Republican Party’s presidential election every four years but also the funds for congressional candidates, state governors, and even the financial power behind right-wing media campaigns.

This would represent an incredibly detailed and terrifying level of control. Its mobilizing power and potential dictatorship would be something no U.S. president has ever had before.

So, Trump’s vision is sharp. As analyzed in the first part, meme coins are fundamentally different from Bitcoin. They are not decentralized; in fact, they are even more centralized than traditional currencies. Trump recognized this and chose this near-laughable meme coin to try to fulfill his ambitions.

Roman emperors once stamped their faces on coins, which was merely a symbolic possession of monetary sovereignty. In reality, Roman emperors had no way of controlling or restricting the flow of political funds.

But if Trump’s “Trump Coin” succeeds, it will truly exert an unprecedented and terrifying level of control over U.S. politics.

However, any strongman’s ambition comes at a cost.

We must ask, what price will the United States pay for Trump’s actions?

3. The Alienation of America’s “Marius’ Marius”

In ancient Roman history, there is a famous concept known as “Marius’ Marius,” and historians say it was precisely this that triggered the transformation and alienation of Rome from a republic to an empire.

To put it simply, this part of history unfolded as follows—Ancient Rome originally followed a system where soldiers were also farmers, with citizens of Rome engaging in farming and business during peacetime. When war broke out, they would put down their work, provide their own weapons and supplies, and participate in defending the homeland.

However, as Rome’s wars against foreign enemies grew more intense and prolonged, the citizen-soldier system gradually became inadequate for the demands of warfare. After the brutal Second Punic War and the Jugurthine War, Consul Marius pushed for a military reform known as the “Marius Military Reform,” which was named after him.

Overall, the content of the Marian reforms was the transformation of the former citizen militia into a professional mercenary army. It stipulated that any voluntary and qualified Roman citizen, including those without property, could enlist. The state directly allocated funds from the treasury to the provincial governors or wartime dictators, who used these funds to purchase weapons or convert them into rations, which were then distributed to the soldiers. In the short term, the Marian reforms greatly enhanced the combat effectiveness of the Roman army, and Rome began its path toward rapid expansion. However, in the long term, the Marian reforms caused a fatal change for Rome: the soldiers’ status underwent a qualitative transformation—they were no longer simple citizens who were attached to their distant homeland, lands, and families, but a group of mercenaries who would do anything as long as the general or governor paid them, provided rations, and promised rewards. The financial structure that had once maintained the Roman Republic also changed—whereas in the past, citizen soldiers supplied their own weapons and rations to defend their homes, the entire military finance system was disordered and decentralized. Now, the financial power to control the soldiers’ rations and become their patrons shifted to the provincial governors. The soldiers even directly referred to the governors as “Dominus” (Latin: master, lord), showing absolute loyalty to them personally. As a result, the governors grew too powerful, eventually paving the way for figures like Caesar, who crossed the Rubicon, marched back to threaten the Senate, and became a lifelong dictator.

The term “Marius’ Club” emerged at this point, when soldiers tied all their belongings, including supplies, wages, and war spoils, into a bundle attached to a stick, which they carried. They jokingly referred to it as “Marius’ Club.” The attachment to personal property as a citizen was replaced, and the soldiers pledged loyalty solely to Marius’ Club and the “Dominus” behind the stick, who provided for their sustenance.

This stick ultimately triggered a seismic shift in Roman history.

Comparing then and now, we can see that Trump’s issuance of the “Trump Coin” could likely become the “Marius’ Club” that triggers a historical shift in the United States. Originally, in the U.S., political figures like the president, despite their immense influence, could not immediately monetize their power. A president’s charisma requires a whole network of political parties, media aligned with the party, foundations, and especially financial systems, to mobilize their supporters and transform that influence into political power.

In this transformation process, the president’s appeal will be restricted by this series of intermediary tools. In the process of completing this mobilization for the president, a large number of social elites will ask: Is the president’s call legal? Is it consistent with American political traditions and norms? Is it in line with your own vital interests?

If it is not met, this mobilization cannot be achieved.

This constitutes a powerful objective binding force that prevents politicians from acting arbitrarily.

The most typical example is actually the “Burning of Capitol Hill” incident in 2021.

Although Trump had the intention and power to mobilize his supporters to “storm the tower” during this process, he was unable to mobilize the government and the Republican Party system that were theoretically obedient to him to give legitimacy and follow-up support to this kind of tower rush. Therefore, the movement eventually failed.

Even Trump’s own Twitter account was banned after the incident.

Trump’s new approach, however, may bypass this mature supervision system—because through Trump Coin, he directly “monetizes” his influence. As mentioned earlier, this system will replace the Republican Party’s previous fundraising institutions and “store energy” for the right-wing support in America. In the future, when needed, Trump can use Trump Coin to directly allocate funds to his supporters for political activities.

In this way, the political power of voters supporting Trump is immediately transformed into financial power, and then financial power is converted back into political power, directly benefiting Trump’s staunch supporters. It’s like the electric transmission system used in the Porsche Tiger tanks favored by Hitler—by bypassing it, Trump is circumventing the elite-controlled constraints of American politics.

The result is that, just as after the Marian Reforms, provincial governors were no longer under the remote control of the Republic, Trump also finally frees himself from the “deep state” (in reality, the existing party mobilization system) that he despises. But just as the Marian Stick paved the way for Caesar to “cross the Rubicon,” what will Trump do with his unrestricted “Marian Stick”? No one knows.

Remember, a “convenient shortcut” that bypasses the constraints of the original system is always created by an ambitious opportunist, and ultimately twisted and abused by a group of greedy speculators to absurd extremes.

This kind of absurdity appeared during the “Crisis of the Third Century” in the Roman Empire—where the Praetorian Guard auctioned the emperor’s position, and the highest bidder won. The mighty Rome became a “cash cow” for the emperor and the Praetorian Guard to exploit for their benefit, turning the originally noble “public affairs” of Rome into a disgraceful business. This was the inevitable outcome when the Marian military reforms, with provincial governors directly feeding the army, were first implemented.

The same reasoning applies here. If Trump’s plan to issue a cryptocurrency succeeds, the U.S. presidential election could very well take a ridiculous turn. For example, a political figure could announce their presidential candidacy, appeal to extreme segments of the population with radical policies, and once successful in the election or even just having created a favorable environment for dissent, publicly declare “issuing a coin,” then capitalize on it to make a fortune and disappear.

In such a case, politics would no longer be politics. Slogans, especially extreme ones, would become tools for those with ulterior motives to profit.

Although I believe Trump himself is not aiming for this—his goal, after the last four years of experience, is likely driven by a desire for revenge, to cross the Rubicon against the Democratic and Republican establishments, and take control of the situation—there’s no doubt that he could become the “first mover” in this regard. He would be the one to bridge the gap between politics and money, creating an exchange channel that was once deemed impossible, thus laying the groundwork for more convenient institutional corruption in the U.S.

Let me reiterate—any “shortcut” that bypasses existing institutional constraints is always created by an ambitious individual and will ultimately be twisted and corrupted by a group of greedy speculators.

What exactly is the influence and appeal of a political figure like the president? It should be a public asset. It’s not influence that Trump owns entirely for himself. People support you, Trump, because you represent the political wishes of many Americans.

But when Trump monetizes this public influence through cryptocurrency, the wealth he gains from it is private. Even if he reinvests this money into political activities through “Trump Coin,” the political influence derived from it will only reflect his personal will.

This would be the most sophisticated form of “pseudo-money laundering” (laundering influence) and the most blatant example of turning public into private.

And can the American system contain Trump’s rampage? It seems difficult at the moment.

It is true that Congress can pass a law similar to “the president or president-elect is not allowed to issue meme coins.” However, such a law also needs to be signed by the president and recognized by the Federal Supreme Court as not unconstitutional before it can take effect.

That is to say, it must go through the three “cheese holes” of legislation, administration, and judiciary at the same time to finally achieve it and fill the gap in the institutional cage that the founding fathers of the United States could not even dream of.

But at least while Trump is in office, with his current influence and strength, he will definitely not allow such a self-flagellating bill to be passed.

What’s more, issuing coins may be just the first in a series of similar attempts by Trump in the future. Trump himself is a top smart businessman, and Musk is helping him. To be honest, I don’t really believe that a group of politicians can outsmart a team led by these two business geniuses.

As a result, a struggle between Ibrahimovic and the Senate over the destruction of the existing order and the maintenance of the existing order is about to begin with Trump’s return to the White House.

And this will bet on the direction and destiny of the United States for hundreds of years.

Two thousand years ago, a very similar struggle was staged in Rome, but with the reform of Marius’ army, with Caesar crossing the Rubicon River, with the people at Caesar’s funeral being hungry and cold and Antony’s sophistry, the call for recklessness With the call of a “New Caesar”, the Republicans were defeated miserably by the Caesars. Rome gradually transformed from the republican era into an imperial system, and then inevitably and rapidly corrupted, and finally ended absurdly in the barbarian Praetorian Guards’ cry for the throne.

And this time, will the Republican resistance be more powerful and resolute? Or is the new Augustus heading towards his coronation?

The overture is over,

The curtain of the theater is opening,

We’ll see.

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