Setelah Federal Reserve menghentikan pengurangan neraca, cadangan bank turun ke tingkat sensitif, sinyal pengetatan likuiditas semakin jelas

【Bitpush】The Federal Reserve officially stopped quantitative tightening on December 1st, which is worth discussing.

Now, banks’ reserve balances have dropped to a rather sensitive level—in history, this has usually meant the market is starting to run short of cash. The most direct signal is that the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is periodically testing the upper bound of the policy rate corridor; simply put, borrowing costs are being pushed up. Liquidity in the U.S. banking system is tightening.

Next, the market will be watching the FOMC’s balance sheet strategy. According to forecasts, the Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) program may start as early as January 2026, with roughly $35 billion in Treasury securities purchased each month. At this pace, the balance sheet could grow by over $400 billion in a year.

This will have a significant impact on liquidity expectations across the entire financial market, and the crypto market is no exception.