11 April Weekend BTC Market Analysis

This week experienced a rebound from 67,500 to around 73,500, approximately an 8% rebound. Next, I will analyze the market based on this week's macroeconomic situation, ETF capital flows, and technical analysis.

1. Overview of the current macroeconomic situation
The US economy shows resilience but faces concerns of "stagflation":
Federal Reserve Policy: The FOMC maintains the federal funds rate in the 3.5%-3.75% range; market forecasts show almost no room for rate cuts this year.
Inflation: Recently, crude oil prices surged significantly due to geopolitical tensions, leading to higher CPI. Core PCE is expected to average 2.7% in 2026, gradually returning to 2% later.

2. Bitcoin spot ETF inflow and outflow situation

April 6: Net inflow of $471 million (the sixth-largest single-day inflow in 2026, second only to the high in February).
April 9: Net inflow of $358.1 million.
April 10: Net inflow of $240.4 million (latest update).
BlackRock IBIT continues to lead (April 9: $269.3 million in a single day), followed by Fidelity FBTC, ARKB, and others.
Monthly and cumulative: March marked the first positive inflow month of 2026 (+$1.32 billion), ending the previous four months of net outflows. Total net inflow has exceeded $56.7 billion.

Institutions are not engaging in short-term speculation but are continuously accumulating in the 70k-72k range. Even if there was a slight outflow on April 7-8, it was quickly reversed by larger inflows, indicating a structural demand to "buy dips."

3. Technical analysis
Currently, on the daily chart, there is no complete rebound yet, but it faces resistance from the daily downward trendline. The key point to watch next is whether the price can break below the 71,500 level. If it does not break down, oscillating around this level could lead to a breakout, aiming for around 74,600. Meanwhile, short-term risk should be monitored at the 1-hour level, as this position shows ongoing divergence, indicating that in the short term, the price needs to consolidate and retrace to repair.
Support: 71,400 - 69,900
Resistance: 73,400 - 74,600 - 76,300

#BTC