QCP:缺乏明确催化剂情况下,比特币不太可能大幅突破当前区间

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BTC2,35%

Gate News bot 消息,QCP在其最新市场分析中表示,在周五关键非农就业数据公布前,职位空缺数量意外增加提振了风险情绪,标普500指数逼近6,000点的重要心理关口。稳定的非农就业数据将巩固美联储关于劳动力市场韧性的论调,强化利率将维持不变的预期。

贸易方面,在预期中的中美会谈之前,市场仍处于观望状态。比特币的前端波动率有所回落,现货价格徘徊在熟悉的10.5万美元附近。

BTC继续区间波动,持仓清淡,偏度正常化,表明方向性信念不足。自5月以来,波动率曲线从中期到后期趋于平缓,与波动率指数(VIX)的类似下跌相呼应,并引发了机会主义的多头Vega交易。值得注意的是,9月份13万美元看涨期权的期权费已升至47v,这表明进入第三季度后,市场将出现一些上涨空间。

展望未来,第三季度可能会更具挑战性。关税相关影响可能会开始渗透到宏观数据中,而围绕“大美丽法案”(BBB)和债务上限的财政风险可能会带来潜在的整体波动。在缺乏明确催化剂的情况下,比特币不太可能大幅突破当前区间。

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