比特币过去24小时下跌5%，价格一度跌至85,694美元，当前徘徊在86,800美元附近，较历史高点回调31%。过去一个月累计跌幅超过21%，以太坊和瑞波币等高Beta资产同步下挫，分别下跌5.6%与6.5%。市场避险情绪升温，CoinGlass数据显示，全网清算达6.37亿美元，其中多头占5.68亿美元。
SynFutures COO Wenny Cai表示，此轮暴跌源于“动能驱动的加速下跌”引发的大规模多头平仓，清算进一步推动现货与衍生品抛售，形成连锁反应。市场恐慌的另一核心因素来自微策略 CEO Phong Le的言论——若需以低于1倍mNAV的价格支付股息，公司“可能会出售比特币”。微策略持有约649,870枚比特币，价值超560亿美元，其表态引发投资者对供应压力的担忧。
此外，标普下调MSTR评级、相关媒体报道也加剧市场脆弱性。尽管如此，预测市场 Myriad 显示，微策略年底前出售比特币的概率仅为5%。
与此同时，Arthur Hayes警告称，若比特币与黄金下跌30%，稳定币发行商Tether的权益将被抹去，这一言论进一步放大了恐慌情绪。考虑到Tether近期进行黄金与比特币配置，市场担心其在极端波动中承压，导致流动性风险上升。
中国央行近期重申加密货币交易属非法活动、并对稳定币表达担忧，也在亚洲时段压制市场情绪。
尽管短线走势疲弱，Cai认为12月市场将维持剧烈震荡，而非持续下跌，预计会经历“短期暴跌→杠杆清算→价值买盘回流”的结构性波动。预测市场数据亦显示，投资者对长期前景仍具信心，认为“加密寒冬重现”的概率仅为12%。
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