Greeks.live:重启牛市的动力有限,缓慢下跌是最主流的期权市场观点

BTC0,79%
ETH1,56%

金色财经报道,Greeks.live宏观分析员Adam在社交媒体发文表示,在刚刚结束的美联储议息会议上,不出意外的降息25个基点,Fed 表示将重启购买400 亿美元短期美国国债 (T-bills) ,鸽派态度可以很好的补充金融体系的流动性,毫无疑问对市场是明显利好。
但是现在重提QE重启牛市为时过早,圣诞节和年度交割临近,往年此时都是加密市场流动性最差的时期,市场活跃度较低,重启牛市的动力十分有限。 从加密货币期权数据看,目前12月底堆积了超过50%的期权仓位,BTC最大痛点在10万美元整数点位,ETH最大痛点在3200美元,主要期限IV本月全部呈下降趋势,市场对于本月的波动预期逐渐减低。
值得注意的是,Skew本月出现了持续的负偏,Put的价格明显高于同Delta的Call,这主要是两个方面的原因,其一是市场平稳,备兑策略再度占据主流,Call的价格被人为压低,其二是近期加密市场疲软,使用看跌期权防备下跌的交易者较多。
综合而言,加密市场现在比较疲软,年底流动性也比较差,市场情绪低迷,缓慢下跌是最主流的期权市场观点,但是同时也要防备市场突发利好带来的反转(尽管可能性相对较低)

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