特朗普关税是否合法或于明年初裁决,预测市场显示不利于特朗普概率较大

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Odaily星球日报讯 最高法院可能很快就会裁决特朗普的关税是否合法,这一决定将对美国总统权力的范围产生深远影响。律师们认为本周做出裁决的可能性很小,大多数人预计裁决将在 2026 年初做出。Polymarket 的数据显示,法院做出不利于特朗普政府并至少推翻部分根据 IEEPA 征收关税的几率为 76%。但分析师和律师们正通过推演几种情景来做好准备,比如:1、混合裁决,最高法院可能采取的一条路径是裁定利用 IEEPA 征收的“对等”关税非法,同时保留针对芬太尼流动的相关关税。2、法院裁定 IEEPA 关税非法,如果法院裁定全部或部分 IEEPA 关税非法,进口商的关注点也将集中在已付关税的退款上。3、法院维持关税,对市场来说可能意味着维持现状。

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