BlockBeats 消息，1 月 14 日，越来越多的期权交易员正在排除对 2026 年美联储降息的预期，转而押注其将全年维持利率不变。这一趋势至少可追溯至上周五。当时美国就业数据显示失业率意外下降。根据市场价格测算，这几乎消除了本月美联储降息的可能性，并促使越来越多的交易员推迟对未来数月降息时点的预期。TJM Institutional Services 利率策略师戴维·罗宾指出：「从数据角度看，美联储至少到 3 月都将维持利率不变的概率已上升，且随着每次会议时点过去，利率保持稳定的可能性越来越大。」与美联储短期基准利率紧密挂钩的担保隔夜融资利率近期期权流向传递出更加鹰派的信号。

新建期权头寸主要集中在 3 月和 6 月合约，以对冲美联储下次降息行动持续推迟的情境。其他针对更远期合约的头寸，则有望从美联储全年维持利率不变的立场中获利。罗宾表示，无论市场是否相信美联储将按兵不动，这些交易的成本都很低，作为严谨的风险管理者，你会希望持有这类头寸。(金十)

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