1月22日消息，ARK Invest 最新发布的研究报告《2026 年大创意》显示，比特币、去中心化金融（DeFi）和代币化资产正在成为全球资本市场的重要组成部分，预计到2030年数字资产市场规模可能达到28万亿美元，其中比特币约占16万亿美元。报告指出，监管清晰度将决定创新能否转化为主流应用，而比特币、DeFi和代币化资产有望在2026年主导加密货币发展。
ARK Invest 强调，比特币作为机构资产类别的成熟度不断提升，美国ETF和上市公司持有比特币总量已升至12%，高于2025年初的8.7%。Crystal aOS 创始人 Joni Pirovich 认为，ARK 的预测“合情合理”，并指出加密货币平台扩张的目标并非成为全球中心化机构，而是寻求全球认可并应对分散的合规要求。
报告显示，代币化资产在2025年规模增长至190亿美元，到2030年可能达到11万亿美元，占全球金融资产约1.38%，主要得益于贝莱德BUIDL基金及Tether、Paxos的代币化黄金。DeFi 应用在2025年创造了创纪录的38亿美元收入，其中1月份就占总收入的五分之一，部分小型协议月收入已超过100万美元。EDENA Capital Partners 创始人李旭强调，成熟监管框架和可互操作机构网络将推动主权数字证券重塑全球资本形成，代币化市场将成为现实世界经济活动的核心驱动力。
此外，报告指出比特币波动性下降，风险调整后收益在2025年大部分时间优于以太坊和Solana。根据CoinGecko数据，比特币交易价格略低于9万美元，过去24小时上涨0.5%，但本周累计下跌超6%。近期特朗普撤回对欧洲的格陵兰岛关税威胁，短线提振了加密货币市场，但地缘政治不确定性仍对价格构成压力。
综合来看，ARK Invest 预测比特币、DeFi及代币化资产将在2026年持续吸引机构和散户关注，并可能推动加密货币进入新一轮发展阶段。
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