Odaily星球日报讯 a16z Crypto 在 X 平台发布长文指出：现阶段能够破解加密货币的量子计算机（CRQC）出现时间表经常被夸大，其在 2030 年前出现的可能性极低，不同加密原语（cryptographic primitives）的风险状况存在差异。抗量子加密因面临“先采集、后解密”（HNDL）攻击，需要立即部署。而抗量子签名和 zkSNARKs 不易受 HNDL 攻击影响，过早迁移反而会带来性能开销、实施不成熟和代码漏洞等风险，因此应采取审慎而非仓促的迁移策略。对于区块链，大多数非隐私公链如 Bitcoin 和 Ethereum 主要使用数字签名进行交易授权，因此不存在 HNDL 风险。其迁移压力主要来自治理缓慢、社会协调和技术物流等非技术性挑战。Bitcoin 面临的特殊问题包括其治理速度缓慢，以及存在数百万枚价值数千亿美元的量子脆弱且可能被遗弃的代币。相比之下，隐私链由于加密或隐藏了交易细节，其机密性确实面临 HNDL 攻击风险，应尽早过渡。
a16z Crypto 强调，在未来几年，与遥远的量子计算机威胁相比，代码漏洞、侧信道攻击和故障注入攻击等实施安全问题是更紧迫、更重大的安全风险。开发者应优先投资于代码审计、模糊测试和形式化验证。
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