1月27日消息，Arthur Hayes表示，如果美联储出手支持疲软的日本国债市场，比特币可能摆脱长期横盘震荡。Hayes提出理论称，美联储或通过印钞干预日元和日本国债市场，以稳定金融体系，这种货币刺激有望为比特币带来新的上行动力。
日本正面临双重压力：日元贬值同时国债收益率上升，显示市场信心受挫。Hayes指出，这一局面可能迫使日本央行或美联储采取干预措施，美国也可能受到影响，因为日本投资者可能抛售美国国债，转而购买收益率更高的日本国债。
Hayes解释，美联储可能与摩根大通等银行合作，建立美元储备，然后卖出美元换取日元，再用日元购买日本国债，从而降低收益率。这一操作将扩大美联储外币计价资产负债表，并形成潜在流动性，从而间接利好比特币市场。Hayes强调，在确认央行干预前，他不会增加风险敞口。
与此同时，美元指数周二下跌至95.6，为2022年1月以来最低。尽管美元近一年下跌约10%，特朗普在爱荷华州演讲中仍坚称美元“表现强劲”，并批评日元和人民币长期贬值影响国际竞争。Hayes认为，美元与日元、日债市场的波动密切相关，比特币的价格走势也可能随之调整。
分析人士指出，美联储若印钞干预日本市场，不仅可能推高日元，还可能提供比特币新的市场资金流动机会，为长期横盘的比特币注入活力。观察美联储H.4.1资产负债表变化，将成为判断市场潜在刺激的关键指标。
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